Category: Elon Musk Interview

Elon Musk Interview with Mohammad al-Gergawi of Dubai (World Government Summit 2023) Less than 25 min long and packed with information (full interview)

Gail Alfar2 Comments
Elon Musk gives an amazing talk at World Government Summit 2023

Welcome back to my blog, I hope you’ll enjoy this week’s post as it is a good solid read.  Elon Musk gives an amazing talk at World Government Summit 2023 (Feb 15) in Dubai.  The reason I am focusing on this is I believe Elon’s words hold great value. We all want a better future and I hope reading this will inspire you to look toward a positive future for humanity.  So relax, enjoy and get ready for these 14 important areas that Elon Musk covers in this great talk,

  • Why did Elon buy Twitter?
  • What will X.com be like?
  •  What is Community Notes on Twitter?
  • How can governments and organizations tweet best?
  • Why civilizational diversity matters
  • Twitter’s next CEO
  • Elon’s thoughts on technology in the next 10 years
  • Elon Musk talks about the need to regulate Artificial Intelligence
  • Education: Elon Musk explains a better way to teach kids
  • How much time should children spend at school?
  • How does Elon balance his stressful and busy life?
  • As a father, does Elon restrict social media for his own kids?
  • Tesla, SpaceX, Twitter as a ‘Reverse Startup’
  • Unidentified Flying Objects (UFOs), Aliens

Below are Elon Musk’s words at World Government Summit 2023

Elon explains why he bought Twitter

“I mean I thought about creating something from scratch but I thought Twitter would perhaps accelerate progress versus creating something from scratch by 3 to 5 years. I think we are seeing a tremendous technology acceleration that 3 to 5 years is actually worth a lot.  I mean, if you think I was a little worried about the direction, and the effect of social media on the world and especially Twitter I thought it was very important for there to be a maximally trusted sort of Digital Public Square where people within countries and internationally can communicate with the least amount of censorship allowed by law, and obviously that varies a lot by jurisdiction.

I think in general, social media companies should adhere to the laws of countries and not try to put a *thumb on the scale beyond the laws of the countries. I think this is something that is probably agreeable to the legislators and to the people of most countries. So that’s the general idea, it’s just to reflect the values of the people as opposed to imposing the values of essentially San Francisco and Berkeley, which are somewhat of a niche ideology, as compared to the rest of the world. I think Twitter was doing a little too much to impose a niche ‘San Francisco-Berkeley’ ideology on the world.  You know, I thought it was important for the future of civilization to try to correct that *thumb on the scale if you will and just have Twitter more accurately reflect like I said, the values of the people of Earth. That’s the intention and hopefully we succeed in doing that.”

X.COM

Q: Long term vision for twitter?

“Well I think it would be, you know, have this long-term sort of vision of something called x.com from way back in the day which is sort of like an everything app. where it’s just maximally useful. It does payments, provides financial services, provides information flow, really anything digital. It also provides secure communications. You know, I think [the goal of x.com] is be as useful as possible, as entertaining as possible, and a source of truth if you want to find out what’s going on and what’s really going on then you should be able to go on the x app and find out. So it’s sort of a source of truth and a maximally useful system. And Twitter is essentially an accelerant to that sort of maximally useful everything app.”

What is Community Notes on Twitter?

“I think there’s something that we’re putting a lot of effort into called Community Notes. It’s currently just in English, but we will be expanding it to all languages. That is I think quite a good way to assess the truth of things where it’s the community itself basically the people of Earth who are basically, not exactly voting but competing to provide the most accurate information. So it’s sort of a competition for truth. I think it’s a very powerful concept to have a competition for truth, because you also said, like what is truth, it’s because what may be true to self, may not be viewed as true to others, but you want to have the closest approximation of that so I think the Community Notes thing is very powerful. I think we are trying to have as many organizations and people and institutions verified as being legitimately those people and organizations is important, and to have the organizational affiliation clearly identified so that if you want to find out if somebody’s actually, if an account is actually from a member of parliament or a journalist or if let’s say, a Twitter handle actually belongs to Disney corporation or something like that, you can go on Twitter and it’s sort of an identity layer of the Internet you can confirm that is, in fact, the case. 

I think once you’ve got these interlocking, sort of identities, it’s actually very hard to be deceptive in that case, and it’s also, you have a reputation to protect at that point. So I think then people are far more likely to be measured in their response. And will be more reasonable, since they have reputational value at that point. So these are some of the ideas that I have, and you know I’m not saying that for sure it will succeed or that it’s going to be perfect but I am confident that it will over time head in a good direction. and I think that the evidence for that will be, do people find it useful?  As we’re measuring sort of the total user minutes, but not just user minutes, unregretted used minutes which I think that that’s the key figure of merit. For example, TikTok has a very high usage but I often hear people say well. I spent two hours on TikTok, but I regret those two hours.  I’m not trying to knock TikTok, but it’s just we don’t want that to be the case with Twitter. We want to say like ‘ok, you spent half an hour on Twitter, but you found it to be useful and entertaining, and a good thing in your life. and ultimately be a force for good for civilization,’ that’s the aspiration.”

How can governments and organizations tweet best?

“I think, generally, I would recommend really communicating a lot on Twitter. And I think it’s good for people to speak in their voice as opposed to how they think they should speak. Sometimes people think, ‘I should speak in this way that is expected of me,’ but it ends up sounding somewhat at times, stiff and not real. You know like if you read a press release from a corporation it just sounds like propaganda. I would encourage CEOs and companies and legislators and ministers and so forth to speak authentically. If there’s a particular policy to explain it. I think sometimes there’s a sometimes a concern about criticism but I think at the end of the day having some criticism is fine. It’s really not that bad.

I’m constantly attacked on Twitter, frankly. And I don’t mind, you have to be somewhat thick-skinned I suppose at times you know because they really try and twist the knife. But I think as a forum for communication, its great. I would just encourage more communication and like I said, to sort of speak in an authentic voice.  Like sometimes people will have someone else be their sort of Twitter manager or something like that and I think people should just do their own tweets. And like sometimes you make a mistake or something, its fine. But I think, doing your own tweets, just like you would give a talk here or have a meeting at a summit, that’s the way to do it is to actually do the tweets yourself and convey the message that you want directly.”

Why civilizational diversity matters

“One thing I should say, I know this is called the World Government Summit, but I think we should be a little bit concerned about actually becoming too much of a single world government if I may say that we want to avoid creating a civilizational risk by having, frankly, this may sound a little odd, too much cooperation between governments.  If you look at history and the rise and fall of civilizations where all throughout history civilizations have risen and fallen but it hasn’t meant the doom of humanity as a whole because they’ve been all these separate civilizations that were separated by great distances.

While Rome was falling, Islam was rising so you had, you know, the sort of caliphate doing incredibly well while Rome was doing terribly. That actually ended up being a source of preservation of knowledge and many scientific advancements. So I think we want to be a little bit cautious about being too much of a single civilization because if we are too much of a single civilization then the whole thing may collapse.

I’m obviously not suggesting war or anything like that but I think we want to be a little bit wary of actually cooperating too much. It sounds a little odd but we want to have some amount of civilizational diversity such that if something does go wrong with some part of civilization that the whole thing doesn’t collapse and humanity keeps moving forward.”

Twitter’s next CEO

“Well, I think I need to stabilize the organization and just make sure it’s in a financially healthy place and that the product roadmap is clearly laid out, so I’m guessing probably towards the end of this year should be good timing to find someone else to run the company.  I think it should be in a stable position around the end of this year.”

Elon’s thoughts on technology in the next 10 years

“Let’s see, ten years…  It’s always difficult to predict with precision, especially over a ten year time frame when it is changing so much.  There’s obviously the transition to sustainable energy with solar, wind, batteries and electric vehicles and if you look at the percentage growth from that, that is a very high percentage growth, although because of the massive industrial base of the current fossil fuel economy, even if all cars were 100% electric production immediately it would take 20 years to replace the fleet.  This is still something that is quite gradual, its measured in at least 30-40 years type of time frame.”

Elon Musk talks about the need to regulate Artificial Intelligence

“On a more sort of near-term time frame, I think artificial intelligence is something we need to be quite concerned about and really be attentive to the safety of AI.  You mentioned ChatGPT earlier.  I played a significant role in the creation of Open AI.  Essentially at the time I was concerned that Google was not paying enough attention to AI safety and so I went in with a group of other people and created Open AI.  Although initially it was created as an open source nonprofit and now it is closed source and for profit.  I don’t have any stake in OpenAI anymore nor am I on the Board, nor do I control it in any way.  But Chat GPT I think has illustrated to people just how advanced AI has become because AI has advanced for a while it just didn’t have a user interface that was accessible to most people. So what really Chat GPT has done is just put an accessible user interface on AI technology that has been present for a few years.  And there are much more advanced versions of that that are coming out. 

So I think we need to regulate AI safety, frankly, because think of any technology which is potentially a risk to people like if it’s an aircraft or cars or medicines and we have regulatory bodies that oversee the public safety of cars and planes and medicine.  I think we should have a similar regulatory oversite for artificial intelligence because it is, I think, actually a bigger risk to society than cars or planes or medicine.  And this may slow down AI a little bit but I think that that might also be a good thing.  The challenge here is that government regulatory authorities tend to be set up in reaction to something bad that happened. 

So if you look at say aircraft or cars, you know cars were unregulated in the beginning (aircraft were unregulated) but they had lots of crashes and in some cases, manufacturers that were cutting corners and a lot of people were dying.   So the public was unhappy about that and so they established a regulatory authority to improve safety.  And now commercial airliners are extremely safe.  In fact, they’re safer than if you were to drive somewhere. The safety per mile of a commercial airliner is better than a car.  And cars are also extremely safe compared to where they used to be. 

The auto industry fought the introduction of seat belts as a safety measure for 10 or 15 years before finally the regulators made them put seatbelts in cars. That greatly improved the safety of cars. Airbags were another big improvement in safety.

My concern is that with AI, is that if something goes wrong the reaction might be too slow from a regulatory standpoint. If I’d say, ‘what are the biggest risks to the future of civilization?’ It’s AI, but AI is both positive and negative and has great promise, and great capability but also with that comes great danger. Just like with nuclear physics, you had nuclear power generation but also nuclear bombs.  I think we should be quite concerned about it and we should have some regulation of what is fundamentally a risk to the public.”

Education: Elon Musk explains a better way to teach kids

Education should be more compelling and establish relevance 

“With respect to education, I think in general there are some things that we could do to make it more compelling would be to explain to children why we are teaching a particular subject. The human mind is default to really forget anything that it deems unimportant, in fact human memory is really quite bad relative to the memory of your phone.  Your phone can remember the entire contents of an encyclopedia down to the last letter and pixel.  But human memory is terrible by comparison.  The mind is constantly trying to forget things.  But if you explain why a subject is being taught, that will establish relevance and is much more likely to result in motivation for kids.  If you teach knowledge in the sciences as solutions to a problem, its much more effective.”

Examples

“Let’s say you’re trying to understand an internal combustion engine, well it’s actually better to take that apart and then say ‘what tools do we need to take it apart?  We need a wrench and screwdriver and various other things and then you understand the reason for the tools.  Mathematics and Physics and Engineering are like tools.  If you teach to the problem then you establish the relevance of the tools then its actually much easier to remember mathematics and physics because they help explain how the world works as opposed to teaching them without explaining why.  It’s like teaching to the problem but currently, we teach to the tool.  It would be like having a course on screwdrivers or a course on wrenches but not understanding why you’re learning about screwdrivers and wrenches.  

I think this is really quite a fundamental principle that should be applied in education.  I think sometimes we do teach classes that children do not find useful and where the answer to the ‘why’ is actually not going to be a very good answer.  Most people do not find advanced mathematics useful and are unlikely to find in their life, or the elements that they do find useful could be taught very quickly as general principles. 

Critical thinking should be taught to children at a relatively young age.  It’s effectively like a mental firewall to really think about when somebody tells you something is it cogent? Is it true? Or what is the probability that it is true? So that you can be taught to reject things that are untrue,  or are more likely to be untrue and favor things that are more likely to be true. Critical thinking is very helpful for people to learn.”

How much time should children spend at school?

Elon was asked if he thinks children should go to school for 12 years,

“Twelve years is a long time I suppose, I mean humans do take a long time to mature so there’s emotional maturity, physical maturity, and mental maturity that is happening simultaneously with education.  I suppose it could be done in 10 years, perhaps it does not need 12, but then is someone mature at age 16? They’re more likely to be mature at age 18. So I guess 12 years is probably not bad.

We probably don’t need an additional 4 or 5-6 years in college or university, that seems probably excessive.  I think we could probably shave a few years off and be fine.”

As a father, does Elon restrict social media for his own kids?

“I’ve really not tried to restrict social media from my kids although that might have been a mistake, depending on which kid it is they’ve really been programmed by Reddit and Youtube I’d say.  More than anything else, Reddit and Youtube. I think probably I would limit social media a bit more than I have in the past and take note of what they’re watching because I think at this point they’re being controlled by some social media algorithm which you may or may not agree with.  I think probably one needs to supervise children’s use of social media and be wary of them getting programmed by some algorithm written in Silicon Valley, which may or may not be what you want.”

How does Elon balance his stressful and busy life? (Elon has worked 20-hour days)

“I should point out that a 20-hour workday is relatively unusual and rather painful but I do sleep 6 hours a night, and if I sleep less than 6 hours a night I find that I might be awake longer but I get less done.  But I do have a worker (unclear) this amount I think relative to most people and that is pretty much 7 days a week and mostly from when I wake up to when I go to sleep. I’m not suggesting this is good for everyone and I think frankly I would like to work a bit less than that.”

Tesla, SpaceX and Twitter

Tesla tested vehicles in extreme weather conditions in the Middle East. Image courtesy Tesla, Inc.

“Like I say, Tesla went through some very difficult times, where it was on the ragged edge of survival and if I didn’t give it everything I got the company could have easily gone bankrupt.  I was really on the verge of bankruptcy for quite a while. I don’t mean to suggest complacency at this point but it does require much less work to operate Tesla now versus the 2017-2019 time frame. Now it’s not at mortal risk of survival, it’s achieved economies of scale that make it not on the ragged edge of survival.

SpaceX also has a strong team and is able to make a lot of progress even if I spend less time there. It does help when I spend time there but it keeps making progress even if I don’t. 

Twitter as a Reverse Startup

Twitter is still somewhat of a startup in reverse and so there’s a lot of work here to get Twitter in sort of a stable position and, like I said, to really build the engine of software engineering at Twitter and really have a great product roadmap and the people in place to implement that product roadmap. And so it is not my intention to work like crazy, I mean I think I still am, I’m comfortable with a mere 80-hour workweek.  That would be fine! That is what I would aspire to.”

Unidentified Flying Object (UFOs), Aliens

Elon clarifies if he thinks reports of “sightings” are Aliens

“I don’t think it’s aliens, no. I do find the whole question of aliens a very interesting one.  What is typically called the fermi paradox which is that if the universe is really is as old as science seems to think it is, where are the aliens? Have we really been around for 13.8 billion years? If so, shouldn’t there be aliens all over the place? The crazy thing is I’ve seen no evidence of alien technology or alien life whatsoever and I’d think I’d know.  You know, SpaceX, we do a lot. I don’t think anyone knows more about space than me or at least space technology. 

But I think it’s actually a troubling thing if there are no aliens as well.  What that actually could mean then is that civilization and consciousness is like a tiny candle in a vast darkness and a very vulnerable tiny candle that could easily get blown out. We should therefore take great care with what may very well be this tiny candle in a vast darkness and make sure that it does not go out and that we send the light of consciousness beyond earth and do everything we can to ensure that the light of consciousness does not go out.”

“We should therefore take great care with what may very well be this tiny candle in a vast darkness and make sure that it does not go out and that we send the light of consciousness beyond earth and do everything we can to ensure that the light of consciousness does not go out.” Elon Musk

Austin, Texas (January 17, 2023) Image courtesy PrimaPixVisuals

Exclusive to What’s Up Tesla – This article was created by Gail Alfar with the goal to preserve this interview in text or written form for the purpose of 1. education and 2. preserving the brilliant insight and words of Elon Musk. February 19, 2023. All Rights Reserved.

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Elon Musk’s talk on StockMKTNewz: What makes Tesla different from every other car company

Gail Alfar4 Comments
Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla. Image courtesy cb_doge

Elon Musk spoke on StockMKTNewz (Dec 22, 2022 in a Twitter space) and his words were notable so I am sharing his talk with you.  Some highlights are,

  • Elon aims to see Tesla grow quickly in a recession, “Let’s grow as fast as we can, without putting the company at risk”
  • Tesla is like no other car company. Elon explains, “the cars are upgradable to autonomy, and arguably an autonomous car is worth many times what a non-autonomous car is”

“I stand by my prediction that long term,
Tesla will be the most valuable company in the world.”
Elon Musk

Elon says he aims to see Tesla grow quickly in a recession, “Let’s grow as fast as we can, without putting the company at risk”

When asked if Tesla can sustain its current growth rate in the next few years or so (in a predicted recession), Elon Musk stated on StockMKTNewz,

“I’m just laying out what I see as, this is just my best guess at the future.  It’s not like I have some incredible crystal ball that’s an exact predictor of the future, so with all appropriate caveats but the reality is, if we are in a recession, and I think we are in a recession, and I think 2023 is going to be quite a serious recession and it’s going to be, in my opinion, comparable to 2009. 

I don’t know if it’s going to be a little worse or a little better, but I think it is likely to be comparable.  It means demand for any kind of optional discretionary item, especially if it’s a big-ticket item will be lower with the FED increasing rates.

Like when you are heading into a recession you should be reducing the FED rate not increasing it.  So that amplifies the difficulty, so now you have a sort of structural demand which is obviously going to be lower in a recession and you’ve amplified the effect of the cost of a car because they’re almost all bought with debt, so you get a double whammy is what I’m saying. 

So the obvious choice in that scenario is you want to grow unit volume which case you’ll have to adjust prices downward or you want to grow at a lower rate or go steady, there’s sort of a choice there.

My inclination would be to still grow. Let’s grow as fast as we can, without putting the company at risk which would mean in that scenario profits would be low to negative during a recession, provided the cash position is okay.

I think that’s still the right move long-term because there’s something that Tesla possesses that other car companies do not which is extremely fundamental. That is the cars are upgradable to autonomy, and arguably an autonomous car is worth many times what a non-autonomous car is.”  

“there’s something that Tesla possesses that other car companies do not
which is extremely fundamental. That is the cars are upgradable to autonomy,
and arguably an autonomous car is worth many times what a non-autonomous car is”
Elon Musk

Tesla Model S with autonomy. Image courtesy Tesla, Inc.

Tesla is like no other car company

Elon Musk continued,

“So even if you’re margins are extremely low in selling the car, the subsequent upgrade to it being autonomous is worth a lot.

That’s something that no other car company can do. Only Tesla can do that. 

I stand by my prediction that long term, Tesla will be the most valuable company in the world.  I’m actually fairly confident that this will be what happens. 

What I cannot predict, because there are many things outside of my control, is what will be the valuation along the way there.  That is subject to a lot of emotional elements on the stock market subject to lots of macroeconomic conditions. 

But I would say, long term Tesla is probably, my best guess, the most valuable company in the world in less than 5 years.”

“So even if you’re margins are extremely low in selling the car,
the subsequent upgrade to it being autonomous is worth a lot.
That’s something that no other car company can do.
Only Tesla can do that.”
Elon Musk

CONCLUSION

We are likely heading into a difficult recession in 2023.  Elon Musk will not put Tesla, Inc. at risk and at the same time he will “grow unit volume in which case you’ll have to adjust prices downward.”  This is a smart move as Tesla possesses something that no other car company has.  Teslas are all upgradeable to autonomy.  Elon said an autonomous car is “worth many times what a non-autonomous car is” and I agree.

I have been using Tesla autonomy for over 2 years now and it is advanced to the level where I can transport across the city of Austin during “rush hour” with zero disengagements. There are many Tesla owners that are having the same experience in different cities across the USA. However, the most valuable thing that no other car company has is Elon Musk for CEO. This is Tesla’s number one asset.

Austin, Texas photo courtesy Adrian N on Unsplash

Read about the magic of Tesla autonomy in these articles

If You Haven’t Used Autopilot Yet, Why Not? (3 Essentials) This article is for everyone who has ever thought, “I love my Tesla, but I will never do Autopilot, it’s too scary.”  I am with you, it can be scary. This article covers 3 areas,

  1. Tesla Autopilot is safer than a human driving
  2. Enabling Autopilot during a drive is easy
  3. You can use Autopilot on your daily drives and disable it anytime during a drive

Enjoying Tesla Autonomy What makes a road trip more fun? Tesla Autopilot definitely does! Freeway driving is also safer when there are eight cameras looking out for your family’s safety.

Do you like reading interviews with Elon?

Elon Musk Conversation with Reporters (Only 4 minutes long and packed with information)

Elon Musk Interview with Xenia Wickett in Norway (ONS 2022 Stavanger Conference August 29th) Less than 25 min long! (full interview) 


Exclusive to What’s Up Tesla – This article was created by Gail Alfar with the goal to preserve this interview in text or written form for the purpose of 1. education and 2. preserving the brilliant insight and words of Elon Musk. January 15, 2023

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Elon Musk with a Model of Starship

Elon Musk Interview: 8 Main Points from Tools for Productivity to Daily Habits

Gail Alfar1 Comment

Elon Musk spoke with education minister Nadiem Makarim and youth at the B20 / G20 Summit on November 14, 2022.  His talk was important because it provides us with tools to improve our own educational goals.  This article contains the entire conversation and Elon’s response to questions.  This interview is one of my favorites and I hope you’ll agree! It is a roadmap for personal growth and education.  There are 8 main points that range from tools for productivity to daily habits. 

  • Tools for Productivity: A Physics framework
  • Physics is the law, and everything else is a recommendation
  • Early life:  Movies & Books that had an impact
  • Roadmap for Education: Early education in critical thinking and identifying fallacies.  Learning what is relevant and eliminating mental obstacle courses
  • Careers that will be in demand: Sustainable Energy, Artificial Intelligence, Synthetic Biology
  • Proceeding with caution: Artificial intelligence and synthetic biology
  • Avoiding Big Mistakes: Place weight on both the heart and mind and welcome critical feedback from friends
  • Daily Habits: Be curious about everything, have a fearless sense of adventure

Tools for Productivity: A Physics Framework

Elon was asked to share what his tools for productivity and principles are, and how he does the amount of work that he does,

“Well, I do put in a lot of hours and I’m not sure I would actually recommend what I do to others, in the sense that I pretty much work all the time so you know it’s quite rare for me to take even a Sunday off so I’m not sure that’s that’s really, you know, I’m not recommending that to people.  With regard to tools for understanding the world I think a physics framework is extremely helpful. In physics, they call it thinking from a first principles standpoint, where you try to understand the most fundamental truths in a particular situation, and then you reason up from there, and then you test your conclusions against what you believe to be the fundamental truths. So in physics, it would be like testing to see if you’re violating conservation of energy or conservation of momentum or something like that, and then constantly trying to be less wrong. So you should always assume that you are to some degree wrong, and you want to be less wrong. This is, I think, very important. It’s a little tougher on the ego, but it’s great for getting to the truth of things. Aspire to be less wrong.” 

Physics is the Law, and everything else is a recommendation

Elon explained how he manages to continue successfully despite the many people who insist he will fail. He replied, “Well, I would go back to physics, in that the only things that are truly impossible are breaking the laws of physics. So, as long as you’re not breaking the laws of physics, it’s possible. It doesn’t matter what anyone’s opinion is. Physics is the law, and everything else is a recommendation. I’ve seen quite a few people break the law, but I’ve never seen anyone break physics.” Elon went on to explain that laws of physics are strong, saying, “Yes, you can certainly challenge the laws of physics but, they’ve been challenged quite well, and they’ve been found to be resilient.”

Early Life: Movies and books that had an impact

Elon (left) age 6, with Tosca and Kimball Musk. Courtesy Maye Musk, A Woman Makes a Plan.
Elon (left) in 1976, with Tosca and Kimball Musk. Courtesy Maye Musk, A Woman Makes a Plan.

Elon shared some impactful moments from his early life,

“Star Wars was the first movie I ever saw in a movie theater. So you can imagine, if you see an incredible movie like that, and it’s the first time you’ve ever been in a movie theater, I think I was six years old, it’s going to have a really big effect on you.” – Elon Musk


“Well, I read a lot of sci-fi, and fantasy books, it’s not going to surprise anyone that I sort of like Star Trek, Star Wars, and that kind of thing. In fact, Star Wars was the first movie I ever saw in a movie theater. So you can imagine, if you see an incredible movie like that, and it’s the first time you’ve ever been in a movie theater, I think I was six years old. it’s going to have a really big effect on you. So, reading and watching a lot of sci-fi and fantasy, Lord of the Rings is probably my favorite book. Isaac Asimov had a huge effect on me, the Foundation Series. Robert Heinlein, ‘The Moon is a Harsh Mistress.’ And then, in trying to find the truth of things I explored many avenues, and ultimately found that physics was the best way to explore the truth of things. At the risk of being a broken record on the physics front, I strongly recommend studying it, haha!”

Roadmap for Education: Early education in critical thinking and identifying fallacies.  Learning what is relevant and eliminating mental obstacle courses

The interviewer asked Elon Musk to describe what education ideally should look like for today’s world. “Sure, well, when you’re trying to learn something, it’s extremely important to establish relevance, to say, why are you trying to learn this? Because our minds are constantly trying to forget things. So our minds are at a subconscious level trying to decide what is relevant and what is not relevant.  So most of the things that you see and hear, your mind does not want to remember because there’s no point in remembering it, so you have to establish relevance.  Once you establish relevance, your mind will naturally want to remember.”

“Explain the tools in the process of solving a problem, and then the tools will make sense”
Elon Musk

“There’s, I think, two fundamentally different ways to promote education. One is by teaching to the tools, and the other is by teaching, where if you want to solve a problem, and trying to understand what tools you need to solve that problem. For example, it would be quite boring to have a series of lectures about wrenches and screwdrivers and winches and whatnot, without establishing relevance, but if you say ‘Well, let’s take apart an engine!’ Now how do we take this engine apart and put it back together? Well, we’re going to need screwdrivers, we’re going to need wrenches, we’re going to need a winch, we’ll need, maybe some Allen keys. You’ll have to take it apart, and then put it back together. and then you’ll understand in the process of doing that, why those tools are relevant. and you will remember them. This is a very simple but important principle, which is, ‘Explain the tools in the process of solving a problem, and then the tools will make sense,’  otherwise, they will seem irrelevant, and people will not remember them, and motivation will be difficult.”

The interviewer asked what needs to change from either a teacher or a curriculum perspective, and Elon replied,“Yeah, I think often, things are backwards. They’ll teach the tools, instead of teaching how to solve a problem, and then establish the relevance of the tools. So, you might take a course on calculus, for example, but you don’t know why you’re taking a course in calculus, it just seems like a mental obstacle course that doesn’t have any point. And actually for a lot of people I would say it probably is a mental obstacle course that has no point because unless you expect to use it in the future, there’s no point in learning calculus, at least at a detailed level. The principles of calculus are interesting to learn, but not the nuanced solving of equations. So, I generally say, What is it that somebody wants to do?, and then try to solve that problem and as you solve that problem, say, Well you need this tool, and you need that tool.”

“I think quite frankly, a lot of education is kind of pointless, and that people are taught a bunch of things, but they don’t actually ever use those things in the future”
Elon Musk

“So, why go to the trouble of teaching people things that they will not use in the future? Quite frankly, I think a lot of education is pointless. Unless one simply wants to go through a mental obstacle course, to test people’s ability to go through a mental obstacle course. I think it’s debatable as to whether we should force people to go through these mental obstacle courses.”

“I Would Strongly Recommend The Principles Of Critical Thinking Be Taught At A Young Age”
Elon Musk

Elon Musk with son X Æ A-Xii. Elon recommends Critical Thinking be taught in early childhood education.
Elon Musk with son X Æ A-Xii. Elon recommends Critical Thinking be taught in early childhood education.

“If I can make a strong recommendation for what should be taught in early education, it’s critical thinking.  Critical thinking is incredibly important, because it creates a mental firewall to allow children to reject concepts that are not cogent. It’s sort of like having an anti-mind virus defense system. Critical thinking, if taught at a young age, creates a mental firewall that prevents false concepts from establishing themselves in people’s minds. So I would strongly recommend the principles of critical thinking be taught at a young age.”

Elon continued, recommending learning how to defend against fallacies.  “And how do you defend yourself against mental trickery? People will often try various fallacies, and sort of trap you with fallacies. And so, having defense against fallacies would be a great course.” 

Careers in High Demand: Sustainable Energy, Artificial intelligence, Synthetic Biology

The interviewer asked which careers might become the most desirable in the future, Elon replied, “Well sure, I think some of it’s going to be pretty obvious, you know, anything to do with sustainable energy is going to be pretty significant in the future. So if it’s to do with lithium ion batteries for stationary storage or for cars, aircraft, boats, that’s going to be very significant. Artificial intelligence will obviously be very significant in all fields for self driving cars, self flying airplanes, self piloting boats.  I’d fully recommend learning those. These are very technical subjects, of course. There are many other worthy pursuits, but as a technologist, that’s what I would recommend. AI and sustainable technology.”

Elon continued, 

“I think there’s a lot of opportunity in synthetic biology with the synthetic messenger RNA. That’s going to be a revolution in medicine, I think comparable to going from analog to digital. Synthetic RNA is like medicine going digital. It’s a much more profound revolution, than I think most people realize. But I am a technologist, so there’s plenty of good things to do that don’t involve technology. But from a technology standpoint, I would say, sustainable energy, AI, synthetic biology are the three big areas.”

Proceeding with Caution: AI and Synthetic Biology

What technology scares you the most in terms of its risk? Are there any technologies that scare you? Elon replied, “Well I think we should be a little bit concerned about AI because we don’t want digital super intelligence that goes wrong and causes damage to humanity. So I think we do need to be cautious with artificial intelligence.” 

“You know, on the synthetic biology front,  that also has the potential to be dangerous, because it is possible to create a far more damaging virus than would occur in nature. These technology tools are definitely double edged swords. The more powerful the technology, the more careful we need to be in how we use it.”

Nadiem Makarim asked what Elon thinks Indonesia needs to do to become a global economic power by 2045. “Well, I think widespread education obviously makes sense. I think having high speed Internet conductivity throughout Indonesia is going to be extremely important. I mean, think about the Internet, if you’ve got a low cost device and access to the Internet, you can learn anything. MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) has lectures, which I believe are available for free on YouTube, so that you could learn practically anything you want from the Internet for free, providing you have Internet access, and at least some level of education to allow you to learn more from the Internet. So I think widespread Internet access is essential for that because it just allows people to learn whatever they want to learn at whatever pace they are comfortable learning.”

You want to take the ‘Aspire to be less wrong’  approach versus, ‘You’re right, and let’s prove that you’re right.’ 
Elon Musk

Elon Musk at G20 Summit, November 14, 2022. Elon speaks with education minister Nadiem Makarim and takes questions from audience
Elon Musk at B20 / G20 Summit, November 14, 2022. Elon speaks with education minister Nadiem Makarim and takes questions from audience

Elon took three questions from the audience.  The first asked what mistakes he made in the past and how he coped with them.  Elon responded, “To be frank I’ve made so many mistakes, that it would take far too long for me to list them all. So I would not want to bore people with the extremely long list of mistakes that I have made in the past. But I think the higher principle here is to always aspire to be less wrong over time. So, to acknowledge that you’ll always be to some degree wrong, but that you wish to be less degree wrong over time.  If you can be a little less wrong every day, I think you’re doing great. It’s hard to be less wrong every day, but frankly, if you can be less wrong most days, that’s a pretty big victory.”

“Take the position that you’re wrong, and you wish to be, aspirationally, slightly less wrong” Elon Musk

Avoiding Big Mistakes: Place weight on both heart and mind, and welcome critical feedback from friends

“I think it’s important to place weight on both the heart and mind, not simply the mind. Some of the biggest mistakes that I’ve made in terms of hiring people was that they were strong of mind, but not of heart. Both matter a great deal. The higher principle is to just assume you’re wrong and you want to be less wrong and just try to be less wrong every day. Seek critical feedback, especially from friends. Often your friends will know what you’re saying is wrong, but they don’t want to hurt your feelings so they won’t tell you. But if you ask them to tell you, and say that it won’t hurt your feelings, then they will tell you.  I think getting critical feedback from friends is very helpful. Yeah, what I’m saying is that we’re always wrong, you should just assume that you’re wrong. Because we are. You want to take the ‘Aspire to be less wrong’  approach versus, ‘You’re right, and let’s prove that you’re right.’ Take the position that you’re wrong, and you wish to be, aspirationally, slightly less wrong.”

In answer to a question about how a small but successful online business could expand to a global level, Elon advised, “Widespread Internet is going to make a big difference, minimizing the cost per useful byte of information is very important. Over time there will be so many devices being made, PCs, iphones, android devices, there will soon be more devices made than there are humans that exist in the world. So, at least if the device is going to be secondhand, it’s going to be extremely cheap. And I think we are seeing something of a plateau in device capability. Like it’s increasingly difficult to add incremental functionality to a phone or a laptop at this point, which means that they will just become lower and lower cost and more and more affordable. But really, the key is being online and having an affordable device. I think the trends are very much in that direction, so that is a reason to be optimistic about the future.”

Daily Habits: Be Curious about everything, have a fearless sense of adventure

“Well, in terms of day to day habits, I think, being curious about the world, how the world works, curious about technology, curious about everything, really.  I think curiosity is a very important thing to have. And then, to be somewhat obsessive about the curiosity. Obsessive curiosity is probably the number one thing.  And I think having a sort of, sense of adventure is also good. I think sometimes people are afraid of things when they shouldn’t be afraid of things. Like you want to make sure that your fear is proportionate to the actual danger. And I think, sometimes our instinctive fear is not proportionate to the actual danger. So you want to try to rethink things, and say ‘Okay, is that fear justified? Will some event actually happen?’ You know you sort of have to sometimes look at your instinctive fear, and question it, and decide whether that is really a valid fear, and often it is not. And simply looking at the fear, will make it go away. “

Watch the interview here https://youtu.be/l8sMFMBfFrM thanks to Elon Alerts.

CONCLUSION

Elon Musk has some great recommendations for productivity and one of them is not to emulate him.  He says he works every day and does not take breaks.  This would not be good for you.  Elon does recommend cultivating a “First Principles” standpoint based on the laws of physics.  He says, “physics is the law, and everything else is a recommendation!” He loved watching Star Wars and Star Trek as a kid, and read such books as Lord of the Rings, The Foundation Series. and, ‘The Moon is a Harsh Mistress.’

On the education front, Elon Musk outlines a roadmap that includes teaching what is truly relevant and critical thinking, as well as identifying fallacies and eliminating mental obstacle courses.  He also highly recommends learning Physics.  

As far as being cautious about technology, he is mainly concerned about the risks of AI and synthetic biology.  Al could possibly harm humanity, and synthetic biology could create a far more damaging virus than would occur in nature.

When Elon Musk talked about mistakes he made in the past, he said they were too many to list, and he also said, “I think it’s important to place weight on both the heart and mind, not simply the mind. Some of the biggest mistakes that I’ve made in terms of hiring people was that they were strong of mind, but not of heart.”  

Hike & Bike Trail of East Austin, Colorado River, Courtesy CVSherman
Hike & Bike Trail of East Austin, Colorado River, Courtesy CVSherman

If you love Elon Musk Interviews, here’s more…

Elon Musk Interview in Norway (ONS 2022 Stavanger Conference August 29th) Less than 25 min long and packed with information (full interview) Elon Musk spoke at the ONS 2022 Conference in Norway in a less than 25-minute interview with Xenia Wickett. I hope you will enjoy this as much as I have, its packed with so much important information. Elon got to the main points quickly, making this a fabulous interview.

Elon Musk Talks at 29th Annual Baron Investment Conference: Conversation About Tesla In a rare appearance, Elon Musk talked at the 29th Annual Baron Investment Conference, on November 4, 2022 in NYC.  For this article, I am sharing the parts of his talk that were about Tesla.

Exclusive to What’s Up Tesla – This article was created by Gail Alfar with the goal to preserve this interview in text or written form for the purpose of 1. education and 2. preserving the brilliant insight and words of Elon Musk. November 26, 2022. 

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Elon Musk Talks at 29th Annual Baron Investment Conference: Conversation About Tesla

Gail Alfar11 Comments

In a rare appearance, Elon Musk talked at the 29th Annual Baron Investment Conference, on November 4, 2022 in NYC.  For this article, I am sharing the parts of his talk that were about Tesla.  Thanks to Ron Baron for this opportunity to hear Elon talk. Highlights,

  • Why he works so many hours
  • Why Tesla patents are free 
  • Why autonomy matters
  • Elon’s First Principles Algorithm, 2 examples
  • Finding out the “Dilbert Ratio” of a company
  • On being all-in with his teams
  • Extreme Engineering Challenge
  • Tesla needs to get into the mining business
  • Investing in TSLA and the value of Autonomy and Optimus
  • Self-Sustaining Tesla Superchargers for the Zombie Apocalypse!

Tesla and SpaceX

“I think what I’m working on has an important effect on the future, in the case of Tesla, I think it’s fair to say that Tesla has significantly accelerated the advent of sustainable energy.  Before Tesla, no one was doing electric cars, and now as a result of Tesla, I think, almost every major car company in the world is building electric cars and I think that’s a pretty big deal.  But there’s still a long way to go to transition the world to a sustainable energy economy and so we still have a lot of work ahead of us at Tesla, but that’s our goal there.”   

“For SpaceX, I think it’s important for the future to be exciting and for humanity‘s existence to be assured of in the long term, I think we must become a multi-planet species and a space-faring civilization.  We’re here like 4 1/2 billion years after earth got started, 13.8 billion years into the age of the universe. It’s only now recently the last 5000 years that we even invented writing.  I would say, date the first civilization by when there was the first writing, which was in ancient Samaria around five or 6000 years ago. So, we’ve basically just been here for a very brief instant.  All of human civilization is a blink of an eye, if there was an eye, on an evolutionary time scale. So, I think its important we take the actions to ensure that the light of consciousness continues because we should really view consciousness as a small candle in a vast darkness that could easily go out.”

Elon Musk explains why Tesla’s Patents are 100% Free

“I think there is a role for patents.  I would say if somebody’s spent a lot of money developing a particular medicine and has to go through expensive stage three medical trials and then they finally get some medicine that is approved but where the drug itself is cheap to manufacture, then I think a patent, in that case, makes sense, otherwise, no one would go to the trouble of doing stage three medical trials.” 

“There are definitely roles for patents. In the case of Tesla, our goal is to advance sustainable energy and we can’t just do it by ourselves, we need the whole industry to go that way, so we gave them our patents for free in order to help them accelerate electric vehicles.”

The Importance of Autonomy

“We’ve not formally announced our next car program, so I can’t talk too much about our vehicle program or programs that have not been announced, but we do expect to make cars that are more affordable than the current Model 3 or Model Y (big applause by the audience here).  I think by far the biggest factor is autonomy, in terms of the value of the car because right now, cars get driven for about 10 or 12 hours a week maybe 1 1/2 hours a day, but there are 168 hours a week and so if they were autonomous the cars could drive for 50 or 60 hours to see a five-fold increase in the utility of the car that could do autonomy.  This is a really gigantic thing.   It would also mean that we wouldn’t need anywhere near as many parking lots and this would also be helpful for the environment because you would need far fewer cars.” 

Elon explains his First Principles Algorithm

Best part is no part! Interior Tesla Model Y credit Tesla.
Best part is no part! Interior Tesla Model Y. Courtesy of Tesla, Inc.

“Well, I think the full explanation or at least an accurate explanation would take a long time. because the first approximation of a car is made of 10,000 unique parts and process steps. Tesla is, at this point, probably the best at manufacturing in the auto industry, which I think nobody was expecting.”

“Well, I’ve got this first principles algorithm that I find to be very helpful in the design and manufacturing of anything. People here may find it helpful. The first thing that you should do is make the requirements that you’ve been given less dumb. Whatever constraints and requirements you were given, they were to some degree, dumb, and you want to make them less dumb. If you don’t start with this, then you get the right answer to the wrong question. And the requirements must be given from a person who can explain the requirements, not from a department, because then you don’t know who to talk to. Then step two is to delete the part or delete the process step.  This sounds extremely obvious, and yet, over and over again, we have found that parts are not needed, they were put in there, just in case, or by mistake. Or there was a step that someone thought was needed but was not actually needed. This sounds insanely obvious, but we have deleted so many parts from the car that did nothing.”

Two Examples of First Principles Algorithm

“There are so many examples, one example is there were three fiberglass mats on top of the battery pack. They partially covered the battery pack. I was on the battery pack production line, and the number one thing choking battery pack production was gluing these fiberglass mats on top of the battery pack.  So the reason I repeat this algorithm myself is I try to first do things backwards. First, I try to automate it, then I try to accelerate it, just go faster, then I try to simplify it, and only then did I delete it. Because it turns out that the team at Tesla that does noise and vibration minimization, sort of making the car quiet, thought that the fiberglass mats were there because of the battery safety team for battery fire protection. Then I asked the battery fire prevention team what they were needed for and they said noise and vibration (laughter here)!  So then we had two cars drive, with the microphone in each car and you could not tell the difference. So, we went to all that trouble for a part that should not exist.”

First Principle Algorithm: “So the reason I repeat this algorithm myself is I try to first do things backwards. First, I try to automate it, then I try to accelerate it, just go faster, then I try to simplify it, and only then did I delete it.” – Elon Musk

“Another example: And these were examples of chokepoints in the entire production system, I was running around the production line, just trying to fix the production line, just like a maniac, like a Tasmanian devil, just running around the factory, like a lunatic. The body production line for Model 3 was stuck because we had a laser welding cell to weld a small crossbar beam in the passenger footwell of the front seats. I’m looking at this beam, and I’m like “what the heck does that do?“ because the entire factory is stopped trying to get this laser weld cell to work. And I can’t imagine what this thing could do, and the production team said it was for crash safety. So then I called the crash safety team and I said ‘Is this for crash safety?’ and they said ‘Oh no this didn’t do anything we should delete it!’ It turned out to be totally useless, they forgot to tell the production team!” 

What’s Your Dilbert Ratio!?

“Honestly, a bunch of these things just feel like you’re living in a Dilbert cartoon. I’m like, ‘Oh no what’s that one?’  Like any given company should have a question, ‘What’s your Dilbert ratio?  It’s not zero! Dilbert quotient? Try to keep it low!”

Elon is All-In with his Teams

When Elon Musk was living and working in the Tesla Femont Factory, he gave a tour to Marques Brownlee on August 20, 2018. See https://youtu.be/mr9kK0_7x08

Around the time Elon Musk was living / working in Tesla Femont Factory, he gave a tour to Marques Brownlee on August 20, 2018. See https://youtu.be/mr9kK0_7x08

Ron Baron asked Elon Musk if this was him or somebody else who found these production problems. Elon responded,

“It’s literally me, it’s not someone else who did this, I was living in the factory in Fremont and Nevada for three years straight. It was my primary residence. I’m not kidding, literally. I actually slept on a couch in a tent on the roof at one point. And for a while there I was just sleeping under my desk, which is out in the open in the factory for an important reason. And it was damn uncomfortable on that floor, and when I woke up, I would smell like metal dust.” Ron Baron mentioned that he went to visit and they bought Elon a couch. Elon responded that “I stopped using the couch, which was in a conference room, and I just slept on the floor under my desk so, during shift change, the entire shift could see me, and that’s important because, the team, if they think their leader is sort of off somewhere having a good time, or drinking mai tais on a tropical island, which I could definitely have been doing and I would have much have preferred to do, I’m not actually a masochist, I think! (Elon raises one eyebrow and smiles) But the thing is, since the team could see me sleeping on the floor during shift change, just with nothing, they knew I was there. and that made a huge difference. and they gave it their all!”  (lots of applause)

Ron asked Elon how he retains his best employees, wondering how Elon prevents them from leaving when they don’t really need the money. Elon said,

“Well, we do have that problem a little bit, so as a company has prosperity, and then people become wealthy, then for a lot of people, once they become independently wealthy, they just can’t bring themselves to work, or they just don’t want to work, and that’s totally understandable.  No judgment!   And so you know, I have a lot of friends who are extremely talented, they had some success earlier in life, and they just decided that was enough trauma, a good friend of mine said “Starting a company is like eating glass and staring into the abyss.”  So when people say to me, “What can you do to encourage entrepreneurs to start companies?” I say if you need encouragement, don’t start a company!” 

Extreme Engineering Challenge

“Well, my memory for technical matters is very good. But I think what a lot of people don’t realize, is what I do 80% of the time is engineering. You know it’s actually quite rare for me to give a talk. My day-to-day work at SpaceX and Tesla is almost entirely engineering and design and also production. Production is key, although I consider that to be part of engineering. Starship is something special. The holy grail, like the critical thing needed to make life multi-planetary and for humanity to be a spacefaring civilization, is a fully and rapidly reusable rocket!”

On Starship: “It’s a very difficult engineering challenge!  If this was a video game, the setting would be at extreme difficulty. Not impossible, but extreme difficulty!” – Elon Musk

“We’ve gone most of the way there with Falcon 9, you’ve seen the rocket booster come back and land. And we also recover the nosecone or faring. But we do not recover the upper stage. So we’ve gotten to the point where we are about 70 to 80% reusable with the Falcon 9. With Starship, we are going for 100% reusable. iI’s difficult to see how profound a change this will be. A fully rapidly reusable orbital rocket has the potential to drop the cost of access to space by a factor of 1000. (applause)  And I should say also, Starship is a very big rocket. It’s more than twice the thrust of a Saturn 5 and about twice the mass.  The entire ship is designed to land propulsively. So it can land on any solid surface in the solar system. If we can make Starship work, then it enables us to over time, to get anywhere in the solar system!  It’s a very difficult engineering challenge!  If this was a video game, the setting would be at extreme difficulty. Not impossible, but extreme difficulty!”

Tesla Delivery Logistics and Tesla Mining

Tesla vehicles ready for transport at South Lot Tesla Fremont, picture credit Gail Alfar, author, 9/30/22
Tesla vehicles ready for transport at South Lot Tesla Fremont, picture credit Gail Alfar, author, 9/30/22
Model Y await transport at Giga Texas near Austin, credit Joe Tegtmeyer.
Model Y await transport at Giga Texas near Austin, credit Joe Tegtmeyer.

“I believe I’ve said in the past publicly that our aspiration is to reach 40,000 cars a week by the end of the year.  We had a bit of criticism for our Q3 (2022) results because we had a lot of cars in transit and the reason why is we got too big for our cars to be transported in the final few weeks. There just weren’t enough car carriers, and there weren’t enough shifts. But it’s actually good in the long run to smooth out deliveries and actually have cars in transit at the end of the quarter because then you’re not rushing to get everything delivered by the end of the quarter and paying all the expedite fees.” When asked if cars could be autonomously delivered, Elon replied, “We can also, if you’re in the area, we can have the car just drive it to you!”

On Tesla Mining: “But it is looking increasingly like for some of the critical elements of batteries that Tesla will need to get into the mining business: Mining and refining.” – Elon Musk

“The scaling constraints change as time goes by. At the beginning, we were very vertically integrated, because suppliers did not take us seriously. The best suppliers would not talk to us because a car start-up had not been successful in the United States since Chrysler in the 1920s when I believe they started up. So it’s been a century since a car start-up was successful in the U.S., that was not a foreign car company coming in that was already successful in their own market. For an American car start-up, Tesla is the first success in 100 years!  

So, you can imagine, if you are an auto supplier, that does not sound like a smart, financial decision. So we had to build a lot of the stuff ourselves and be vertically integrated to create the car. And then that ended up being an asset. Because now we understood so much about the supply chain and what it took to build a car. So we were able to design an integrated vehicle that actually needed far fewer parts, and cost less and weighs less and has higher performance.  But it is looking increasingly like for some of the critical elements of batteries that Tesla will need to get into the mining business: Mining and refining. We’ve never contemplated investing in Glencore, I’m talking about Tesla doing it ourselves.” (response to Ron’s comment)

Investing in TSLA and the value of Autonomy and Optimus

Tesla Optimus humanoid robot prototype at 5th China Expo.
Tesla Optimus humanoid robot prototype at 5th China Expo. is compact and efficient. More photos here.

“I actually rarely try to convince anyone to invest in Tesla, and many times I’ve said to people, ‘Don’t invest in Tesla,’ and ‘Our stock is too high!’  But then people just ignore me, and keep buying the stock for some reason.”

“I think at a very high level I’d say autonomy is insanely a fundamental breakthrough. And no one is even close to Tesla for solving generalized autonomy or generalized self-driving vehicles. No one’s even close. And with the self-driving, as I talked about earlier, the car becomes roughly 5 times more useful. But it costs the same for both. Now can you imagine what would happen if the company was doing like 25 to 30% gross margins but suddenly that same thing was five times more valuable?  What would that do to the value of Tesla and the value of that car? It boggles the mind, actually. So if you think of net present value and future cash flows, if you actually do the math on that, it’s insane. Then there’s also the Optimist program, which is our humanoid robot. We will leverage our manufacturing expertise and the intelligence we’ve developed for self-driving to have a useful humanoid robot. Now, the economy is fundamentally GDP per capita times capita. If you no longer have a constraint on capita because of the useful humanoid robot, it is not clear that there is any limit to the size of the economy!”

Self-Sustaining Tesla Superchargers for the Zombie Apocalypse!

Finally, in response to a question about if Tesla would use street lamp posts for charging cars, Elon Musk emphasized Tesla’s goal for Supercharging, “I think they are already doing that in London, and the long-term goal for our supercharger stations is that they will have Tesla Solar and Batteries at them so that as many as possible are self-sustaining. That the supercharger stations generate energy during the day, and then also have a localized battery pack so that people can charge at night. The Tesla supercharging stations would continue to function even in a Zombie Apocalypse! You just never know!  That’s coming one day, we know it is, it’s just a matter of time!” 

CONCLUSION

Elon Musk and Ron Baron at the Baron Investment Conference 2022
Elon Musk and Ron Baron at the Baron Investment Conference 2022
  • Elon works so many hours 16-18 hrs/day because the mission of Tesla and SpaceX is so important for humanity.
  • Tesla patents are free for all carmakers in order to accelerate the transition to all-electric.
  • Autonomy is a huge deal: Elon says, “…right now, cars get driven for about 10 or 12 hours a week maybe 1 1/2 hours a day, but there are 168 hours a week and so if they were autonomous the cars could drive for 50 or 60 hours to see a five-fold increase in the utility of the car that could do autonomy.  This is a really gigantic thing.”
  • Elon’s First Principles Algorithm is very helpful in the design and manufacturing of anything.
  • Every company has a “Dilbert Ratio” and it’s not ZERO!
  • Elon is all-in with his teams, especially when there are challenges facing the teams.
  • Extreme Engineering Challenge: Starship is the biggest to date!
  • Tesla needs to get into the mining business, Elon said, “But it is looking increasingly like for some of the critical elements of batteries that Tesla will need to get into the mining business: Mining and refining.”
  • We are going to enter an Age of Abundance! Elon said, “We will leverage our manufacturing expertise and the intelligence we’ve developed for self-driving to have a useful humanoid robot. Now, the economy is fundamentally GDP per capita times capita. If you no longer have a constraint on capita because of the useful humanoid robot, it is not clear that there is any limit to the size of the economy!”
  • Self-Sustaining Tesla Superchargers with solar & batteries will function in the Zombie Apocalypse!

Author’s Note: Elon Musk also spoke about Twitter and X .com, you may listen to the full talk here. I write about Tesla and sustainable energy, so did not include those aspects.

Austin Skyline by Christofer Sherman.

Austin Skyline by Christofer Sherman.

Do you like reading interviews with Elon?

Elon Musk Conversation with Reporters (Only 4 minutes long and packed with information)

Elon Musk Interview with Xenia Wickett in Norway (ONS 2022 Stavanger Conference August 29th) Less than 25 min long! (full interview)

Exclusive to What’s Up Tesla – This article was created by Gail Alfar with the goal to preserve this interview in text or written form for the purpose of 1. education and 2. preserving the brilliant insight and words of Elon Musk. November 5, 2022.  Here are links to Baron Funds, the sponsor of the interview above, https://www.baronfunds.com/insights/baron-partners-fund%E2%80%99s-investment-tesla-inc-and-how-we-manage-risk

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Elon Musk Interview with Xenia Wickett in Norway (ONS 2022 Stavanger Conference August 29th) Less than 25 min long and packed with information (full interview)

Gail Alfar1 Comment
Arriving to Norway: Elon Musk on way to ONS 2022 Conference. cr. Jarle Aasland / Stavanger Aftenblad

Elon Musk spoke at the ONS 2022 Conference in Norway in a less than 25-minute interview with Xenia Wickett. I hope you will enjoy this as much as I have, its packed with so much important information. Elon got to the main points quickly, making this a fabulous interview.

Main Points in Interview

  • Thoughts About Trust (Twitter)
  • Taking The Set Of Actions That Are Most Likely To Lead To A Better Future
  • 3 Pillars Of A Sustainable Energy Future: Sustainable Energy Generation, Stationary Battery Packs, Electric Vehicles
  • Sustainable Rocket Propellant
  • Looking Years Ahead At The Auto Industry
  • What Are The Limiting Factors Governing The Rate At Which We Can Transition To Sustainable Energy?
  • Update On Master Plan Part 3
  • Is There A Limiting Function To The Transition To Sustainable Energy?
  • China, Gigafactory Expansion, The Fundamental Good Of Tesla
  • Approach To Risk, The Riskiest Thing Is No Action 
  • Ukraine
  • Caution in Developing Artificial Intelligence
  • Two Goals: Starship To Orbit And Self-Driving Cars 
August 29, 2022 Elon Musk speaks at ONS Conference, Stavanger, Norway in an Interview with Xenia Wickett.

Of course, Elon started out warmly thanking the Norwegian people,

“Thank you for inviting me and it’s an incredible honor to be here. I love Norway. And I just want to thank the leaders and the people of Norway for their long-standing support of electric vehicles and sustainable energy. I just want the people of Norway to know, that hey you have really made a difference. So thank you!”

Thoughts About Trust (Twitter)

In response to “what do you think about trust?“ Elon said,

“That’s really quite a philosophical question, and one could wax on at length about that. (laughter asking if talking about Twitter?)  I do think, with respect to information, generally, people want to know that the information they are receiving is accurate, that it is representative of the full picture, and they want to be able to believe what they read and not feel that it’s overly biased or at least understand the nature of the bias.

I think one of the key things to trust is transparency, and for people to really know or understand, if it’s a social media company, what the algorithm is. We should open-source the algorithm so people can know it and critique it, and so it’s not a black box. And then if there are any modifications done by people who are at that social media company, it should be clear and transparent, so it’s not hidden.

I believe in the free flow of ideas, and just generally erring on the side of free speech, within the boundaries of the law. You can’t go beyond that without being arrested I think.”

Set Of Actions That Are Most Likely To Lead To A Better Future

Elon Musk and Prime Minister (Jonas Gahr Støre) have lunch together at ONS. cr. Bjørn Shaogon / VG

“I don’t aim to disrupt for the sake of disrupting. It’s more like, what set of actions are more likely to lead to a better future? In order for humanity to have a compelling future for civilization, we must have a clear path to a sustainable energy future. That’s one of the things that I think everyone would agree with. I am not someone who would tend to demonize oil and gas, to be clear. This is necessary right now or civilization could not function. So I do think at this time, we actually need more oil and gas and not less. But simultaneously, moving as fast as we can to a sustainable energy economy.  I thought the words of the Prime Minister were spot on. I am glad to hear that there is a large effort for ocean wind. That’s a massive untapped potential. I would say go even more than what the Prime Minister said frankly, I mean if you did a 100 x 100 array, of 10 MW systems, you would have 100-gigawatt capability. And then, you do need to combine that with stationary storage battery packs to buffer the energy, because sometimes the wind blows and sometimes it doesn’t blow, or it just blows hard. So you need to buffer it with stationary battery packs. Tesla and other companies are also making that.”

3 Pillars of Sustainable Energy Future: Sustainable Energy Generation, Stationary Battery Packs, Electric Vehicles

“The three pillars of a sustainable energy future are sustainable energy generation, which is hydro, geothermal, wind, and solar.  I’m also pro-nuclear. I think we should really keep going with the nuclear plants. I know it’s an unpopular view in some quarters, and I think if you have a well-designed nuclear power plant, you should not shut it down. Especially right now.

But I try to say what I think is scientifically cogent, even if it is not popular. So the pillars are sustainable energy generation, but then you must also store the energy. The two main sources of sustainable energy, wind and solar, are intermittent, the wind doesn’t always blow and the sun doesn’t always shine. So you must buffer the energy in stationary battery packs. And then the third element obviously is electric vehicles. Electric cars, trucks, aircraft, boats. with the ironic exception of rockets.”

Sustainable Rocket Propellant

“We do have a plan for sustainably producing the rocket propellant, which is actually, almost 80% liquid oxygen. So liquid oxygen you can get obviously from the atmosphere. And then we are going with Methane fuel, which is 20% of the propellant, but that you can make also sustainably long term from CO2 and water, H2O which produces CH₄ and O₂ so that’s the sustainable long-term path for rocket propellant generation and that’s how it would have to be done on Mars, for example. 

We do actually have some sustainable power generation for some of our propellant generation already, but it’s a small percentage now but will be a big percentage in the future.”

Car Industry Moving Rapidly Towards Electric

“I think we’ll see tremendous change over the next 5, 10, or 15 years. By 2030, I would say probably about half of all new cars will be electric. By 2035, it might be 80% or something like that. It could be even higher than those numbers, but the car industry is moving rapidly towards electric.

One country after another, and one state after another is making zero-emission mandates. California recently passed, I think, by 2035 all new cars can only be zero emission. So, clearly, the people of the earth, decided this is the way to go.

So we’ll see quite a tremendous change in that regard and if you look at Norway you will see kind of an advanced version of that because Norway has some of the highest, I believe Norway has gone to the majority are electric vehicles of new cars sold, which is great. Again, thank you! So, it’s pretty cool! (applause)”

What Are The Limiting Factors Governing Rate At Which We Can Transition To Sustainable Energy?

“What are the limiting factors governing the rate at which the world can transition to sustainable energy? I think it’s the rate at which one can grow battery production. So then, if you say, what are the constituents in the battery, in lithium-ion batteries? You’ve obviously got lithium, you’ve got the cathode, which is the main cathode materials are going to be metal, and that’s nickel, manganese, and iron. And on the anode side, it’s primarily carbon and graphite. So, in a sense, you’re sequestering a little bit of carbon in the battery, with some silicone added for energy density on the anode side. And then there’s the electrolytes and whatnot.

The main limitations are not that these metals are exceptionally rare, but that there’s a tremendous amount of processing equipment to take the ore and turn it into battery-grade materials. Because the battery grade anode and cathode have to be extremely pure in order for the battery to last for a long time. So, it’s sort of processing of those elements.”

Update on Master Plan Part 3

“I’m sort of writing this master plan part three, which is, what are the steps needed to scale sustainable energy, again, what are the limiting factors? And how can we potentially accelerate these? So hopefully, I’ll finish that in a month or two.”

In response to Xenis’s question, Can you give us a preview, what are the big steps, what are the gating functions? Elon said,

 “Well, the materials that I mentioned are really essential. There’s not a raw material constraint, there’s actually a tremendous amount of Lithium.  Lithium is almost everywhere, it’s one of the most common elements on earth, so is Iron, and so is Carbon. On the Iron you usually combine Phosphorus, so it’s Iron Phosphate (FePO4). So that will probably be the biggest chemistry that’s used.  It’s not so much the raw materials as it is converting the raw materials into the highly purified form used in batteries. There’s a tremendous amount of processing that needs to happen for that at the sort of scale that is currently, you know, comparable to the oil and gas industry. The scale is just tremendous. So this is all happening, it’s happening fast. It’s just a question of what we could do to accelerate that, to go even faster. So this is happening, it’s just a question of when.”

Is There A Limiting Function To The Transition To Sustainable Energy?

Elon explains that he does not see a limiting function to the transition to sustainable energy, he explains it this way,

“I don’t see a limiting function, it’s really just, what actions can we take to have it be faster? And it’s going to be, increasing the rate at which we can convert the ore into battery-grade materials. hat will set the rate at which we can build electric vehicles and stationary battery packs to capture solar and wind.

What I’m saying, is this is an optimistic and positive message. I’m not suggesting at all, complacency. But just saying that things are moving in a good direction, and but obviously if we can make them go even faster that’s better.”

China, Gigafactory Expansion, The Fundamental Good Of Tesla

“Tesla is actually investing in production in China. so we have a large factory in Shanghai that we are continuing to expand outward and invest in the factory. We’re also investing in Europe with our factory just outside of Berlin. and in the US, with our factory just outside of Austin. [note: pictures of Austin factories appear at bottom of this article] We hope to announce a location for another Gigafactory perhaps later this year. So we’re going as fast as we can. 

I’ve always said that the, I would say when you look at Tesla, the fundamental good that Tesla does, I think, sometimes it’s by profit, but rather by how many years will Tesla have accelerated the transition to sustainable energy? This is how I think one should look at it. 

I think we have accelerated it to some degree already. You know, I think if it wasn’t for Tesla, the car industry would have transitioned to EVs much later.

It is an exponential curve, yes. Most people don’t know what an exponential curve means, but it’s a (moves hand in the upward direction). I think things are improving exponentially with respect to sustainable energy. but if we can make it go faster, all the better.

What will actually happen is, the transition from, it’s following an S curve. So you have an exponential increase, then linear, then logarithmic. (points hand into the air) that’s basically how any large industrial transition happens.”

Approach To Risk, The Riskiest Thing Is No Action

“I don’t sort of like, just arbitrarily seek risk. I think some things are risky, but if the stakes are important enough then you take the risk. (applause). The stakes are extremely important. Very fundamental to the future.

I think there are probably a lot of people in this room that do take a lot of risks. I literally just try to use the scientific method, frankly. What is the importance of the outcome? What is one risking, in order to achieve that outcome? Like I said, if the outcome is important enough, even if the probability of success is low, I think, still do it, in my view, some things are very important, and in order to have a good future, if we don’t do them then we are in big trouble, and so how much of a risk really is it? Because if we don’t take those actions we won’t have a good future. I think the riskiest thing would be no action.” 

Ukraine

“We did have some guess that maybe there would be something happening in Ukraine, and so we did pre-position some STARLINK terminals there, just in case. And so that was helpful for the initial part of the invasion. And then we accelerated delivery of a lot of terminals within a few days of the invasion taking place and then the Ukrainian government tells me it’s been very helpful.

I do hope some peace can be achieved in Ukraine and Russia. I do think some thought should be given to, what’s the endgame there. I think the endgame will require some compromise on the part of both parties.”

Caution in Developing Artificial Intelligence

“Tesla‘s goal, from when we started it, has always been to accelerate sustainability, so that is still our primary goal by far. Our secondary goal is to solve at least real-world intelligence as it applies to self-driving cars, and then potentially with humanoid robots, so Tesla is in part an AI company and increasingly an AI company but it’s still primarily a sustainable energy company. I don’t think we need AI to solve sustainability. If that is happening, it might help us accelerate it. 

I think we should also be cautious about AI, and just make sure that as we develop AI, that it does not get out of control, and that AI helps make the future better for humanity. 

I think we should be more worried about AI‘s safety than we currently are. Especially, the future wars are going to be (and we’re seeing a taste of that with Ukraine), very much, drone wars. So if your drones are better than their drones, then you win, basically, it’s what will happen.”

Two Goals: Starship To Orbit And Self-Driving Cars 

In response to the closing question, “what keeps you up at night?” Elon stated,

“I’m fundamentally a technologist, it’s kind of important, or an engineer, so, yes sometimes people call me a businessman, I have to do business, I have to have a group of people because I can’t just do this in a garage by myself.

But, I am fundamentally an engineer or a technologist and so the two technologies I am focused on trying to ideally, get done before the end of the year are getting our Starship to orbit, which I think is important for expanding consciousness beyond Earth and life beyond Earth. And then, having the Tesla cars be able to do self-driving. So have self-driving in wide release at least In the USA, and hopefully, potentially in Europe, depending on regulatory approval.”

CONCLUSION

Some of the main points made by Elon Musk in the Norway interview that really caught my attention:

  • Twitter algorithm should be open-source, and Elon believes in the free flow of ideas and free speech.
  • Elon explains that in order for humanity to have a compelling future for civilization, we must have a clear path to a sustainable energy future. 
  • When asked what are the limiting factors governing the rate at which we can transition to sustainable energy?  Elon explains that Lithium, Iron and Carbon are plentiful.   He says, “The main limitations are not that these metals are exceptionally rare, but that there’s a tremendous amount of processing equipment to take the ore and turn it into battery-grade materials. Because the battery grade anode and cathode have to be extremely pure in order for the battery to last for a long time. So, it’s sort of processing of those elements.”
  • Similarly, Elon was asked again if there is a limiting function to the transition to sustainable energy, and he explains, “I don’t see a limiting function, it’s really just, what actions can we take to have it be faster? And it’s going to be, increasing the rate at which we can convert the ore into battery-grade materials. That will set the rate at which we can build electric vehicles and stationary battery packs to capture solar and wind.”
  • We are moved to action by Elon’s explanation of risk: He says, “Like I said, if the outcome is important enough, even if the probability of success is low, I think, still do it, in my view. some things are very important, and in order to have a good future, if we don’t do them then we are in big trouble, and so how much of a risk really is it? Because if we don’t take those actions we won’t have a good future. I think the riskiest thing would be no action.”
  • If you know Elon, he has warned us all about the dangers of AI many times before. Here is expresses great concern over developing artificial intelligence in the context of war.  He cautions, “I think we should be more worried about AI’s safety than we currently are. Especially, the future wars are going to be (and we’re seeing a taste of that with the Ukraine), very much, drone wars. So if your drones are better than their drones, then you win, basically, it’s what will happen.” 
  • As the world’s Technoking, Elon explains he is most driven to get Starship to orbit this year and have Tesla cars be able to do self-driving.  “But, I am fundamentally an engineer or a technologist and so the two technologies I am focused on trying to ideally, get done before the end of the year are getting our Starship to orbit, which I think is important for expanding consciousness beyond Earth and life beyond Earth. And then, having the Tesla cars be able to do self-driving.”
Tesla Gigafactory near Austin, cathode plant seen in the distance at 12 o’clock. September 3, 2022. cr. Joe Tegtmeyer
Tesla builds massive battery cathode plant next to Gigafactory Texas near Austin, Sept 3 cr. Tegtmeyer

Enjoy this article?
You might also like to read,
“Elon Musk: Discussion About Underpopulation”
which is a highly acclaimed article
published on July 9, 2022.

Exclusive to What’s Up Tesla – This article was created by Gail Alfar with the goal to preserve this interview in text or written form for the purpose of 1. education and 2. preserving the brilliant insight and words of Elon Musk. All Rights Reserved. September 4, 2022

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Elon Musk: Discussion About Underpopulation

Gail Alfar26 Comments

With the hot weather we are having this summer, why not grab a cold beverage, and join me to soak in what I think might be Elon Musk’s “first principles” approach to addressing today’s declining birthrate?

A Model S Family in S. Korea. Credit: Tesla

Historically, Being Wealthy Has Led to Having Fewer Kids

Elon Musk was asked about the declining birthrate on Johnna Crider’s podcast. 

Elon said,

“The declining birthrate is somewhat counterintuitive, but generally, the wealthier someone is, the fewer kids they have. 

I’m an exception, but it’s quite rare.  Basically, the higher the education level and the wealthier people are, the fewer kids they have. 

So it’s not a money thing.  In fact, it seems the opposite, like the more money that someone has, the fewer kids they have. 

Somebody who is living as the 2022 standard for the poverty level would be really, I mean they have access to things that the richest person didn’t have 100 years ago.”  

Population COLLAPSE is Coming. Credit: After Skool, see https://youtu.be/zC1khWr7wg8

Elon’s approach: Correcting the false perception that there are too many people

Johnna asked, “Do you have any other thoughts or ideas on how to reverse population decline?”

“The population decline problem, I think is possibly the biggest risk to civilization or its certainly one of the biggest risks. 

First of all, a lot of people think that there’s too many humans on the planet and the planet can’t sustain this number of humans.  This is absolutely not true. 

We could double the population without any meaningful damage to the environment. You can put all the humans on earth in the city of New York.  That’s the cross-sectional area of humans. They could literally fit in the city of New York on one floor, you don’t even need high-rises.  And if you’re on a plane flight and you look down and you say, “what percentage of the time, if I were to drop a ball, would that ball hit a person?”  Basically zero.

Even in a city like LA, where we think, “oh, that’s a crowded city,” looking at it from above, what’s the cross-sectional area of humans relative to the rest of the ground?”  It’s much less than 1%, even in LA. 

So if you’re in a big city environment and you see a lot of people you sort of extrapolate that to everywhere, but it’s actually very rare to see a concentration of humans. 

Earth is very sparsely populated with humans.  There’s not enough humans, far from being too many.  I think people are still sort of operating on the assumption that the population is growing like crazy when in fact the opposite is occurring.  These numbers are easy to look up, they’re just on the internet.  We had the lowest birthrate in recorded history last year.” – Elon Musk

“Far too many people are under the illusion that Earth is overpopulated, even though birth rate trends are so obviously headed to population collapse” – Elon Musk

False perceptions persist that fewer kids are better for the earth’s environment. Credit: Elon Musk on After Skool’s video “Population COLLAPSE is Coming.”

Supporting Families at Tesla, SpaceX, Neuralink and The Boring Co.

In addition to being very vocal about underpopulation, Elon Musk is making sure families get needed financial support at all four of his companies. The Musk Foundation is also now tasked with donating directly to families.

“Kids are worth it if at all possible. I’m planning to increase childcare benefits at my companies significantly. Hopefully, other companies do same. Also, Musk Foundation plans to donate directly to families. Hopefully, details to be announced next month.” – Elon Musk

(article update, July 12) Elon Musk responded on Twitter to this article, saying “Children are essential to the future.” His comment led to over 2000 people giving their opinions on underpopulation.

Conclusion

Elon Musk carefully explains that wealthier people have fewer kids.  In a sense, even people living at the 2022 poverty level are better off than wealthier people in times past. 

Oddly, this counterintuitive situation has parallelled a lower overall birthrate.

There are hundreds of millions of people in the world who lack literacy and/or access to the internet, but for those who do have it, you can learn almost anything online.

When asked if he has any other thoughts or ideas on how to reverse population decline, Elon Musk uses the first-principles approach in correcting the false notion that there are too many humans on the planet for the earth to sustain, “I think people are still sort of operating on the assumption that the population is growing like crazy when in fact the opposite is occurring.”

Finally, Elon Musk has directed both the Musk Foundation and his companies to directly support families with children.

My thoughts

Most people are surprised to find out I have 5 kids. I do, and they are all amazing! After we had our 5th, my husband and I wanted more. My husband’s logic was that the USA is wealthier than most countries and he liked my parenting style. Kids really DO grow up fast, making parenting easier and less of a challenge than I once thought.

I think first-principle thinking can be applied to population collapse.  Here are a few of my observations:

  • Raise awareness that population decline is a real problem, in the process people, will stop thinking that there are too many people
    • After Skool created a great education video featuring Elon Musk, Chamath Palihapitiya, Dr. Shanna Swan, Jodan B. Peterson, Chris Williamson, and Dave Chappelle, you can view it on Youtube
  • Change the fact that wealthier people have less kids.  As world literacy and education and internet connectivity rise, this will become more important
  • The Tesla Optimus Bot can help relieve the difficulty we will face with too few young people to care for older people
  • Optimus can also perform tedious jobs that people find unattractive

Though it may be inevitable that we will experience population collapse, we as a society can still work towards lessening the severity of it.  We can work towards correcting misunderstandings about it. Companies can increase childcare benefits, encouraging and supporting their families.

What are your thoughts on this topic? Do you agree with Elon Musk?

Downtown Austin, Texas at night. Credit: David Gallentino on Unsplash

In addition to solving the problem of underpopulation, Elon Musk said, “I want to do everything we can to maximize the use of technology to help achieve a better future for humanity. To that end, any area that contributes to a sustainable future is worthy of our investment.” You can read more about this in my article, “Read Elon Musk’s essay on technology for a better future.”

Gail Alfar. Exclusive to What’s Up Tesla – This blog post was created utilizing STARLINK satellite services. All Rights Reserved. July 9, 2022

Header photo by Tyler Nicks on Unsplash

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Elon Musk: This is Part of Master Plan Part 3

Gail Alfar8 Comments

Welcome back to What’s Up Tesla! I’m celebrating today with you the fantastic opportunity I had to meet Elon Musk at Gigafactory Texas this past week.  I was invited to be present during Johnna Crider’s interview for her podcast, “Getting Stoned: Interview With Elon Musk.” So let’s have a slice of Pecan Pie, and enjoy! 

Elon Musk explained details about Master Plan Part 3 and making sure the power stays on in an easy-to-understand way. I am excited to share his words with you in this article!

3 Pillars to a Sustainable Energy Future

In the interview, Elon Musk said

“There are three pillars to a sustainable energy future. 

One is electric transport, the other is sustainable power generation, primarily through solar and wind, and then the third is stationary battery energy storage because the sun doesn’t shine all the time and the wind doesn’t blow all the time. 

You’ve got to store the energy while the sun is shining and the wind is blowing in the stationary batteries and then those batteries provide power to the grid. 

We can have a fully sustainable energy earth just with those three things. 

Tesla is working on all those three things.”

“There are three pillars to a sustainable energy future.” – Elon Musk

“The stationary battery part is a big deal and we are ramping that up. 

It’s going to be a very big part of our business long term.  It’s a very important part of the total energy solution for earth. 

Our estimate is that you need about 300 Terawatt hours of energy storage or 300,000 Gigawatt hours.  Other people may come up with different numbers but in order to fully transition the earth including all electricity, transport and heating, I think it’s probably around that number. 

So, that’s a lot of batteries that need to get made.  And if you assume a battery life, before it gets recycled, of 20 years roughly, then you need 15 Terawatt hours a year of annual production at steady state.  So, 15,000 Gigawatt hours a year.

Our current production is much less than that.  I think we might be approaching 1000 Gigawatt hours or thereabouts at this point.”

Giga Texas Battery Cell Production [credit: Tesla]

Master Plan Part 3

“And this is like my, sort of, my Masterplan Part 3. It’s about scaling. How do we scale?

How do we get to that fully sustainable energy economy?

And what tonnage do we need of what materials?

And what is maybe the best way to get all of those materials and turn them into batteries?

But the fundamental governor of the rate at which we can transition to sustainability is the rate at which we can grow the output of lithium-ion batteries.”

100% Renewable Multi-Customer Microgrid Is Now Operational at PG&E credit: PG&E

In response to Johnna’s comment that the weakest part of Texas is the grid, and here comes Tesla trying to strengthen that weakest part, Elon replied

“The batteries are helpful even without sustainable energy because they can sort of load balance the grid so if you have power spikes the batteries can absorb the power spike. 

If it dips or there’s a drop in power or an increase in power, like power fluctuations, the batteries can smooth it out. 

And so the Tesla Megapack and Powerwalls and stuff can be really helpful for stabilizing the grid even in the absence of sustainable energy.”

Making Sure the Power Stays on in Texas

I asked Elon Musk if he could talk a little about Distributed Energy Resources [DERs] and if Gigafactory Texas could be protected in the event of an emergency, Elon replied,

“Well, I think this is going to be in terms of batteries, a combination of large batteries, sort of utility-scale batteries with very big installations. 
Like we just did a big thing with PG&E at Moss Landing in California which is going to be very important for maintaining power in California.  There is a number of other installations happening. 
And then at the local level, you’ve got the Powerwalls that collectively can stabilize the grid within a neighborhood. 
So, the combination of centralized batteries with Megapack and distributed batteries at homes and businesses with powerwall working together can have a very positive effect in making sure the power stays on.” – Elon Musk

Tesla Megapacks at Moss Landing with PG&E [credit PG&E]

I stated that I think it brings people hope when we think about how much people depend on energy for just about everything.  Elon replied,

Absolutely, energy is the foundation of the economy.  Civilization would crumble immediately if we didn’t have it.  There would be mass starvation. Terrible. – Elon Musk

Conclusion

Elon Musk wastes no time explaining that Tesla is working on the three pillars to a sustainable energy future. These are electric transport, sustainable power generation, and stationary battery energy storage. Elon’s Master Plan Part 3 aims to quickly solve the problem of how to get to a sustainable energy economy. Elon said, “the fundamental governor of the rate at which we can transition to sustainability is the rate at which we can grow the output of lithium-ion batteries.” Energy is the foundation of the economy. Elon stated, “the combination of centralized batteries with Megapack and distributed batteries at homes and businesses with powerwall working together can have a very positive effect in making sure the power stays on.”

My thoughts

My impression of Elon Musk is that he’s extremely focused and dedicated. His attitude was one of genuine kindness and enthusiasm about doing the interview. Several times he also expressed a sense of urgency about wanting to get to work with the Tesla Team at Giga Texas that day.

The conference room the interview was in gives you a floor-to-ceiling view of the inside of the gigafactory [see below]. Factory sounds were present, including Model Y horns beeping beyond the glass. We are all a witness to the beginning of something very big. Gigafactory Texas will soon produce an unprecedented number of Model Y, batteries, and Cybertrucks at a steady, fast pace.

Many people are interested in learning more about energy storage, so to have the chance to ask Elon a question about Distributed Energy Resources [DERs] and keeping Gigafactory Texas’ power on was a real honor!

What would you ask Elon Musk if you had the chance?

Gigafactory Texas as seen from the interview conference room. [credit Gail Alfar, All Rights Reserved, June 25, 2022]

Want to read more excellent articles? I suggest…

You can subscribe to this blog here, and you can listen to the entire interview with Elon Musk here and on Spotify or Apple Podcasts. 

Gail Alfar. Exclusive to What’s Up Tesla – This blog post was created utilizing STARLINK satellite services. All Rights Reserved. July 3, 2022

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Elon Musk Speaks on Giga Berlin Delivery Day 

Gail Alfar1 Comment
“Tesla will make sure that this is a gem, a gemstone for the area, for Germany, for Europe, and for the world” – Elon Musk [photo courtesy Tesla Welt Podcast]

Welcome back to my blog, I hope you’ll enjoy this week‘s post. I am posting part of Elon Musk‘s speech given on March 22, 2022 at Giga Berlin Brandenburg. The reason I am focusing on his speech in this blog post is that I believe it is a historically significant speech.  It contains a roadmap for the future of our world as we transition away from fossil fuels and into a clean energy future, involving solar, wind, and battery storage and electric vehicles.

Elon’s speech inspires us to look towards a more positive future. So grab a warm blanket, a good beverage, and enjoy! 

Thank you for your hard work which has led to this great day, and it was amazing to see how excited the customers were to receive their cars. It was just super good vibes and it bided very well for the future of Giga Berlin Brandenburg. 

I think it’s worth remembering that every car that we make is a step in the direction of a sustainable future. The thing about this factory and the cars that we make is that it gives people hope about the future and it’s like it’s very important to have reasons to be excited about the future. Often people are depressed or sad about the future because they think it won’t be good but what we’re doing here is with every car we make, with every battery we make, we’re making the future better. So what you are doing really matters, it makes a difference.

“I’m sort of working on the Master Plan Part 3”

Elon Musk
I’m sort of working on the Master Plan Part 3. Yes, it’s going to be good. But a huge part of that is scaling to high volume. So in order for us to really affect the world in a positive way- because we get a lot of press, we get a lot of attention- but say how many vehicles have we made as a percentage of total vehicles in the world? Because there are 2 billion vehicles in the world. Well, so far, we’re actually well below 1% and not even 1/2 a percent. So, it’s essential for us to really affect the future in a positive way. We have to make a lot of cars. It’s the only way. So that’s why we call it a Gigafactory, it’s very big.  

We’re starting off with the Model Y and we’re going to do a number of exciting additional vehicles here. So I think this overall is going to be a center of excellence for sustainable energy in general, and it’s really going to help the world. I look forward to doing it with you and once again, thanks for everything!

“At Tesla, we really try to do the right thing. We want to be a company that you can believe in, in your heart and soul.”

Elon Musk
In addition to the work that we do here, we also inspire and encourage the rest of the industry to go towards electrification. I think it’s fair to say that without Tesla, without the work that the Tesla team has done, the rest of the industry would not be moving so quickly towards electrification. That’s also why we open-sourced our patents. We have made our patents freely available to the other car makers, because it was the right thing to do.  No other company has done that far as I know. At Tesla, we really try to do the right thing. We want to be a company that you can believe in, in your heart and soul. In order to do that, we must be a company that does the right thing.

In response to a question about when Tesla would go to South America, and maybe some other markets, Elon stated,

We definitely want to go to the world, the challenge we have right now-  it’s a high-class problem - the orders we have are well in excess of our production, so sometimes people will say, “why aren’t you in all these other markets and why don’t you make all these other different versions of the product like different cars like where is the Tesla semi-truck and the Cybertruck and the Roadster?”  The challenge we have is that our orders far exceed our production, so, you know… ‘ A high-class problem.’ But we need to have our production get to the point where it exceeds our current orders and then it makes sense to expand to additional markets and to have additional products. Because, if we add complexity and we don’t add production volume, then we’ve not actually done anything more. 

The good is a function of how many vehicles we are able to make. As we are able to ramp up production and satisfy demand in our existing markets, then we will expand to other markets and we will also add additional products. Last year there were a lot of supply chain challenges with chips, everyone knows about the chip shortage. This year there are still some chip shortages. Next year, I think will be a challenge with total battery production. Certainly, if you start going, like 2 to 3 years out, it’s all about how many gigawatt-hours of battery are produced. That will be the limiting factor. 

And then going even further down into the supply chain, what is the right battery materials that are being mined and refined? And obviously, you want to do that in an environmentally sensitive way. In the grand scheme of things is “how many terawatt hours of battery can be produced per year.”  Our rough calculation is that about 300 TWHR  is needed to transition the world to a sustainable energy economy. This is a lot of batteries basically. So we want to try to do as much of that as possible. I think we are doing a pretty good job, we are growing by 70% to 80% per year on average and maybe even faster than that in the future. So that is, I think, the answer to ‘why not more markets, and why not more products?’

When asked what he was most proud of, Elon responded,

I am most proud of the amazing work done by the Tesla team, to scale at the rate that we are scaling and make compelling products that people love. You know, you think about, how many products can you buy that you really love? It’s so few, you know, and it would be great if people made more products that you love.

“At Tesla, we really focus on making products that people love.”

Elon Musk
And Tesla is a rare company that actually makes products you love. It brings you joy every day, that’s great.  If you look at our rate of growth, Tesla is the fastest-growing company in history that makes a large manufactured product. So the next fastest was the Ford Model T and that was 100 years ago and we are actually growing faster than the Ford Model T, which is crazy!

Elon Musk explains Giga Berlin Model Y will be offered in a deep complex red and liquid silver

With respect to colors, which colors will be available from this factory? 

Colors are always a challenge because when you think about You do not only need to manufacture it but you need to service it and fix it for like 20 years. You have to think about what are we going to put the service team through? You know, managing all these colors? So we have to be careful with a total number of colors but, we obviously are going to make some special colors here because  - and it’s more than just color itself but it’s the layers of paint to get the dimensionality -  we’re going to make a really special red, which I think a lot of people have seen. It’s like 13 layers of paint. The layers give you dimensionality. It makes the color look deep and complex. and then we will also have silver. It will have maybe eight layers, and it’s going to be really special. Like kind of liquid silver and a deep red. A deep complex red. In a few months, we will make this special deep dark red and quicksilver. 

I think it will be the best paint on any production car that is not made for a show or something like that.  And you have to design the paint job especially for 13 steps.

Elon answered questions about battery composition, as well as when FSD beta might come to Europe, 

I think will be ready to show it to regulators in the European Union, maybe in two or three months. But then we have got to do quite a lot of work for all of the special use cases in Europe. As you know, the roads vary quite a lot by country. The road rules, and the way the lines are painted, are different. And then you have to recognize all the different languages. It’s quite difficult to do full self-driving in Europe. Much more complex than say, the USA or Canada. There are a lot of little tricky things, the rules are not the same. But I think, probably, we can start doing FSDbeta maybe later this year in Europe. Depending on regulatory approval. Things are different in the USA, in the USA, things are legal by default. In Europe, they are illegal by default.
So, we have to get approval beforehand, whereas in the USA, you can do it on your own cognizance, more or less.

But as for what the next target is, Elon responded

I guess the next target is, to really scale production this year, and try to make as many cars as we can. We want to complete the development of the Cybertruck and be ready for production next year. Hopefully, have enough battery pack capability to start the Tesla semi-truck. Hopefully, we may complete the engineering of the new roadster, and then there are some future products that are also pretty important. There’s also stationary storage, new versions of the Tesla solar roof and Powerwall 3. There are a lot of things. So we have a very exciting product pipeline.

When asked what makes him happy, Elon responded with,

“It makes me happy to see you guys happy“

Elon Musk

There was a question from the audience was about production capacity and Elon responded,

Twenty million cars in 10 years. And that would be a good number because there are 2 billion cars and trucks in the world that are in active use. So 20 million would be one percent of the global fleet per year.

Waving goodbye, Elon said,

“Thanks again guys, love you.”

Elon Musk

This was my eleventh blog post and one of my favorite.  I am extremely thankful that Tesla Giga Berlin-Brandenburg is open and producing wonderful electric vehicles.  Each vehicle will bring happiness and joy to its owners.  I have owned a Tesla since December 2019, and I love driving it around Austin.  I went to see Gigafactory Texas a few days ago, and I am very excited about the future of electric vehicles made in Texas.  I hope to learn more about both Gigafactories over time. I know that you also share this enthusiasm with me and many others.  We are truly living in exciting times. 

Elon Musk delivers an inspiring speech at Giga Berlin Brandenburg [credit Tesla]

Gail Alfar, [edited by Sarah Alfar], Exclusive to What’s Up Tesla – All Rights Reserved. March 26, 2022

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