Optimus robot wears the Giga Texas “Don’t Mess with Tesla” belt buckle. Photo Courtesy of Tesla, Inc.
Elon Musk is leading Tesla towards a bright future where the company is just as much an artificial intelligence company as it is a vehicle and energy company.
Elon spoke Friday evening on September 30 at Tesla AI Day 2022 in Palo Alto, California and he introduced the world to an Optimus robot wearing a Giga Texas “Don’t Mess with Tesla” belt buckle. The belt buckle was first seen at the October 2021 Annual Meeting of Stockholders in which it was used to announce the moving of the Tesla HQ from California to Austin, Texas.
Elon’s unveiling of the new Optimus is also worth a big celebration, so it is appropriate the robot wears the belt buckle. This article highlights,
Optimus is designed to be useful, affordable, and made at scale
Optimus has great potential to transform civilization into a future of abundance
Tesla is structured so the public can ensure a safe future in regards to Optimus
A technical presentation followed by a Q & A reveals more about Optimus
Optimus: Useful, affordable, and made at scale
Elon Musk explains,
“Our goal is to make a useful humanoid robot as quickly as possible and we’ve also designed it using the same discipline that we used in designing the car, which is to design it for manufacturing such that it’s possible to make the robot at high volume at low cost, with high reliability.
That’s incredibly important, I mean, you’ve all seen very impressive humanoid robot demonstrations and that’s great but what are they missing?
They’re missing a brain and they don’t have the intelligence to navigate the world by themselves and they’re also very expensive and made in low volume, whereas Optimus is designed to be an extremely capable robot but made in very high volume, probably ultimately millions of units and it is expected to cost much less than a car.
I would say, probably less than $20,000, would be my guess.
The potential for Optimus is appreciated by very few people.” – Elon Musk
Optimus has great potential to transform civilization into a future of abundance
One day our civilization may be one of great abundance, as Elon Musk explains,
“The potential really boggles the mind, because you have to say what is an economy?
An economy is sort of productive entities times their productivity.
Capita times output, productivity per capita. But the point at which there’s not a limitation on capita, it’s not clear what an economy even means at that point!
Economy becomes quasi-infinite. So, taken to fruition, in the hopefully benign scenario, this means a future of abundance.
A future where there is no poverty, where you can have whatever you want in terms of products and services.
It really is a fundamental transformation of civilization as we know it.” – Elon Musk
Tesla is structured so the public can ensure a safe future in regards to Optimus
This important issue was emphasized by Elon Musk,
“Obviously, we want to make sure that transformation is a positive one, and safe.
But that’s also why I think Tesla, as an entity doing this, being a single class of stock publicly traded owned by the public is very important and should not be overlooked.
I think this is essential, because then, if the public doesn’t like what Tesla is doing, the public can buy shares in Tesla, and vote differently.
This is a big deal, like, it’s very important that I can’t just do what I want. It’s very important that the corporate entity that makes this happen, is something that the public can properly influence.
So I think the Tesla structure is ideal for that. Like I said, self-driving cars will certainly have a tremendous impact on the world.
I think they will improve the productivity of transport by at least a half order of magnitude, perhaps an order of magnitude, perhaps more.
Optimus has maybe a two order of magnitude potential improvement in economic output. It’s not clear what the limit actually even is. But we need to do this in the right way. We need to do it carefully, and safely and ensure that the outcome is one that is beneficial to civilization and one that humanity wants.
This is extremely important, obviously.” – Elon Musk
Elon Musk also explained to the audience that,
“At Tesla, we really care about doing the right thing or are inspired to do the right thing, and really not pave the road to hell with good intentions and I think the road to hell is mostly paved with bad intentions, but every now and again, there’s a good intention in there.
We want to do the right thing.” – Elon Musk
Tesla Optimus humanoid robot. Photo Courtesy of Tesla, Inc.
A technical presentation followed by a Q & A reveals more about Optimus
You can watch the presentation on Tesla YouTube, and it may be best watched in parts as it is
technical.
Prior to questions and answers from the audience, Elon explained,
“We really wanted to show the depth and breadth of Tesla and artificial intelligence, compute hardware, robotics actuators, and try to really shift the perception of the company away from … you know a lot of people think we’re just a car company, or we make cool cars, or whatever.
Most people have no idea that Tesla is arguably the leader in AI hardware and software and that we are building what is arguably the first, the most radical computer architecture since the Cray-1 supercomputer.
I think if you’re interested in developing some of the most advanced technology in the world that’s going to affect the world in a positive way, Tesla is the place to be.” – Elon Musk
Many interesting points were made during the 40-minute Q & A session, including,
There will be endless possibilities for Optimus, many different versions are planned
You will be able to have a conversation with Optimus
As a safety precaution, Optimus will not have over-the-air updates. Optimus will have a safety off-switch
Optimus should be ready for customers in 3-5 years
Tesla may begin a monthly podcast to explain what is going on behind the scenes
Tesla Optimus humanoid robot. Photo Courtesy of Tesla, Inc.
It has great potential to transform civilization into a future of abundance.
To ensure this is done right, Elon Musk explained that, “Obviously, we want to make sure that transformation is a positive one, and safe. But that’s also why I think Tesla, as an entity doing this, being a single class of stock publicly traded owned by the public is very important and should not be overlooked. I think this is essential, because then, if the public doesn’t like what Tesla is doing, the public can buy shares in Tesla, and vote differently. This is a big deal, like, it’s very important that I can’t just do what I want. It’s very important that the corporate entity that makes this happen, is something that the public can properly influence. So I think the Tesla structure is ideal for that.”
How do you think an Optimus Robot could make your life more abundant?
Giant fork in the road leads to Tesla’s Optimus AI Tesla’s Optimus robot is already working at the Fremont factory, and exactly how many robots are in Tesla’s fleet? Elon Musk installed a giant 30ft fork in the road created by Burning Man artist Hunter Leggitt outside the Autopilot office in Palo Alto, will this be a permanent art installation?
Read Elon Musk’s essay on technology for a better future Elon Musk is optimistic, lives with a sense of urgency, and takes action to make the future good. His essay is an inspiration to all people, and here he talks about exciting uses for the Optimus humanoid robot!
Who will Benefit once Tesla Autonomy is Solved? I believe a world where autonomy is the norm is closer than we realize. This article attempts to answer the question, who will benefit once Tesla autonomy is solved?
Gail Alfar, author. Exclusive to What’s Up Tesla – October 2, 2022. All Rights Reserved.
My goal as an author is to support Tesla and Elon Musk in both making life better on earth for humans and becoming a space-fairing civilization.
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Arriving to Norway: Elon Musk on way to ONS 2022 Conference. cr. Jarle Aasland / Stavanger Aftenblad
Elon Musk spoke at the ONS 2022 Conference in Norway in a less than 25-minute interview with Xenia Wickett. I hope you will enjoy this as much as I have, its packed with so much important information. Elon got to the main points quickly, making this a fabulous interview.
Main Points in Interview
Thoughts About Trust (Twitter)
Taking The Set Of Actions That Are Most Likely To Lead To A Better Future
3 Pillars Of A Sustainable Energy Future: Sustainable Energy Generation, Stationary Battery Packs, Electric Vehicles
Sustainable Rocket Propellant
Looking Years Ahead At The Auto Industry
What Are The Limiting Factors Governing The Rate At Which We Can Transition To Sustainable Energy?
Update On Master Plan Part 3
Is There A Limiting Function To The Transition To Sustainable Energy?
China, Gigafactory Expansion, The Fundamental Good Of Tesla
Approach To Risk, The Riskiest Thing Is No Action
Ukraine
Caution in Developing Artificial Intelligence
Two Goals: Starship To Orbit And Self-Driving Cars
August 29, 2022 Elon Musk speaks at ONS Conference, Stavanger, Norway in an Interview with Xenia Wickett.
Of course, Elon started out warmly thanking the Norwegian people,
“Thank you for inviting me and it’s an incredible honor to be here. I love Norway. And I just want to thank the leaders and the people of Norway for their long-standing support of electric vehicles and sustainable energy. I just want the people of Norway to know, that hey you have really made a difference. So thank you!”
Thoughts About Trust (Twitter)
In response to “what do you think about trust?“ Elon said,
“That’s really quite a philosophical question, and one could wax on at length about that. (laughter asking if talking about Twitter?) I do think, with respect to information, generally, people want to know that the information they are receiving is accurate, that it is representative of the full picture, and they want to be able to believe what they read and not feel that it’s overly biased or at least understand the nature of the bias.
I think one of the key things to trust is transparency, and for people to really know or understand, if it’s a social media company, what the algorithm is. We should open-source the algorithm so people can know it and critique it, and so it’s not a black box. And then if there are any modifications done by people who are at that social media company, it should be clear and transparent, so it’s not hidden.
I believe in the free flow of ideas, and just generally erring on the side of free speech, within the boundaries of the law. You can’t go beyond that without being arrested I think.”
Set Of Actions That Are Most Likely To Lead To A Better Future
Elon Musk and Prime Minister (Jonas Gahr Støre) have lunch together at ONS. cr. Bjørn Shaogon / VG
“I don’t aim to disrupt for the sake of disrupting. It’s more like, what set of actions are more likely to lead to a better future? In order for humanity to have a compelling future for civilization, we must have a clear path to a sustainable energy future. That’s one of the things that I think everyone would agree with. I am not someone who would tend to demonize oil and gas, to be clear. This is necessary right now or civilization could not function. So I do think at this time, we actually need more oil and gas and not less. But simultaneously, moving as fast as we can to a sustainable energy economy. I thought the words of the Prime Minister were spot on. I am glad to hear that there is a large effort for ocean wind. That’s a massive untapped potential. I would say go even more than what the Prime Minister said frankly, I mean if you did a 100 x 100 array, of 10 MW systems, you would have 100-gigawatt capability. And then, you do need to combine that with stationary storage battery packs to buffer the energy, because sometimes the wind blows and sometimes it doesn’t blow, or it just blows hard. So you need to buffer it with stationary battery packs. Tesla and other companies are also making that.”
3 Pillars of Sustainable Energy Future: Sustainable Energy Generation, Stationary Battery Packs, Electric Vehicles
“The three pillars of a sustainable energy future are sustainable energy generation, which is hydro, geothermal, wind, and solar. I’m also pro-nuclear. I think we should really keep going with the nuclear plants. I know it’s an unpopular view in some quarters, and I think if you have a well-designed nuclear power plant, you should not shut it down. Especially right now.
But I try to say what I think is scientifically cogent, even if it is not popular. So the pillars are sustainable energy generation, but then you must also store the energy. The two main sources of sustainable energy, wind and solar, are intermittent, the wind doesn’t always blow and the sun doesn’t always shine. So you must buffer the energy in stationary battery packs. And then the third element obviously is electric vehicles. Electric cars, trucks, aircraft, boats. with the ironic exception of rockets.”
Sustainable Rocket Propellant
“We do have a plan for sustainably producing the rocket propellant, which is actually, almost 80% liquid oxygen. So liquid oxygen you can get obviously from the atmosphere. And then we are going with Methane fuel, which is 20% of the propellant, but that you can make also sustainably long term from CO2 and water, H2O which produces CH₄ and O₂ so that’s the sustainable long-term path for rocket propellant generation and that’s how it would have to be done on Mars, for example.
We do actually have some sustainable power generation for some of our propellant generation already, but it’s a small percentage now but will be a big percentage in the future.”
Car Industry Moving Rapidly Towards Electric
“I think we’ll see tremendous change over the next 5, 10, or 15 years. By 2030, I would say probably about half of all new cars will be electric. By 2035, it might be 80% or something like that. It could be even higher than those numbers, but the car industry is moving rapidly towards electric.
One country after another, and one state after another is making zero-emission mandates. California recently passed, I think, by 2035 all new cars can only be zero emission. So, clearly, the people of the earth, decided this is the way to go.
So we’ll see quite a tremendous change in that regard and if you look at Norway you will see kind of an advanced version of that because Norway has some of the highest, I believe Norway has gone to the majority are electric vehicles of new cars sold, which is great. Again, thank you! So, it’s pretty cool! (applause)”
What Are The Limiting Factors Governing Rate At Which We Can Transition To Sustainable Energy?
“What are the limiting factors governing the rate at which the world can transition to sustainable energy? I think it’s the rate at which one can grow battery production. So then, if you say, what are the constituents in the battery, in lithium-ion batteries? You’ve obviously got lithium, you’ve got the cathode, which is the main cathode materials are going to be metal, and that’s nickel, manganese, and iron. And on the anode side, it’s primarily carbon and graphite. So, in a sense, you’re sequestering a little bit of carbon in the battery, with some silicone added for energy density on the anode side. And then there’s the electrolytes and whatnot.
The main limitations are not that these metals are exceptionally rare, but that there’s a tremendous amount of processing equipment to take the ore and turn it into battery-grade materials. Because the battery grade anode and cathode have to be extremely pure in order for the battery to last for a long time. So, it’s sort of processing of those elements.”
Update on Master Plan Part 3
“I’m sort of writing this master plan part three, which is, what are the steps needed to scale sustainable energy, again, what are the limiting factors? And how can we potentially accelerate these? So hopefully, I’ll finish that in a month or two.”
In response to Xenis’s question, Can you give us a preview, what are the big steps, what are the gating functions? Elon said,
“Well, the materials that I mentioned are really essential. There’s not a raw material constraint, there’s actually a tremendous amount of Lithium. Lithium is almost everywhere, it’s one of the most common elements on earth, so is Iron, and so is Carbon. On the Iron you usually combine Phosphorus, so it’s Iron Phosphate (FePO4). So that will probably be the biggest chemistry that’s used. It’s not so much the raw materials as it is converting the raw materials into the highly purified form used in batteries. There’s a tremendous amount of processing that needs to happen for that at the sort of scale that is currently, you know, comparable to the oil and gas industry. The scale is just tremendous. So this is all happening, it’s happening fast. It’s just a question of what we could do to accelerate that, to go even faster. So this is happening, it’s just a question of when.”
Is There A Limiting Function To The Transition To Sustainable Energy?
Elon explains that he does not see a limiting function to the transition to sustainable energy, he explains it this way,
“I don’t see a limiting function, it’s really just, what actions can we take to have it be faster? And it’s going to be, increasing the rate at which we can convert the ore into battery-grade materials. hat will set the rate at which we can build electric vehicles and stationary battery packs to capture solar and wind.
What I’m saying, is this is an optimistic and positive message. I’m not suggesting at all, complacency. But just saying that things are moving in a good direction, and but obviously if we can make them go even faster that’s better.”
China, Gigafactory Expansion, The Fundamental Good Of Tesla
“Tesla is actually investing in production in China. so we have a large factory in Shanghai that we are continuing to expand outward and invest in the factory. We’re also investing in Europe with our factory just outside of Berlin. and in the US, with our factory just outside of Austin. [note: pictures of Austin factories appear at bottom of this article] We hope to announce a location for another Gigafactory perhaps later this year. So we’re going as fast as we can.
I’ve always said that the, I would say when you look at Tesla, the fundamental good that Tesla does, I think, sometimes it’s by profit, but rather by how many years will Tesla have accelerated the transition to sustainable energy? This is how I think one should look at it.
I think we have accelerated it to some degree already. You know, I think if it wasn’t for Tesla, the car industry would have transitioned to EVs much later.
It is an exponential curve, yes. Most people don’t know what an exponential curve means, but it’s a (moves hand in the upward direction). I think things are improving exponentially with respect to sustainable energy. but if we can make it go faster, all the better.
What will actually happen is, the transition from, it’s following an S curve. So you have an exponential increase, then linear, then logarithmic. (points hand into the air) that’s basically how any large industrial transition happens.”
Approach To Risk, The Riskiest Thing Is No Action
“I don’t sort of like, just arbitrarily seek risk. I think some things are risky, but if the stakes are important enough then you take the risk. (applause). The stakes are extremely important. Very fundamental to the future.
I think there are probably a lot of people in this room that do take a lot of risks. I literally just try to use the scientific method, frankly. What is the importance of the outcome? What is one risking, in order to achieve that outcome? Like I said, if the outcome is important enough, even if the probability of success is low, I think, still do it, in my view, some things are very important, and in order to have a good future, if we don’t do them then we are in big trouble, and so how much of a risk really is it? Because if we don’t take those actions we won’t have a good future. I think the riskiest thing would be no action.”
Ukraine
“We did have some guess that maybe there would be something happening in Ukraine, and so we did pre-position some STARLINK terminals there, just in case. And so that was helpful for the initial part of the invasion. And then we accelerated delivery of a lot of terminals within a few days of the invasion taking place and then the Ukrainian government tells me it’s been very helpful.
I do hope some peace can be achieved in Ukraine and Russia. I do think some thought should be given to, what’s the endgame there. I think the endgame will require some compromise on the part of both parties.”
Caution in Developing Artificial Intelligence
“Tesla‘s goal, from when we started it, has always been to accelerate sustainability, so that is still our primary goal by far. Our secondary goal is to solve at least real-world intelligence as it applies to self-driving cars, and then potentially with humanoid robots, so Tesla is in part an AI company and increasingly an AI company but it’s still primarily a sustainable energy company. I don’t think we need AI to solve sustainability. If that is happening, it might help us accelerate it.
I think we should also be cautious about AI, and just make sure that as we develop AI, that it does not get out of control, and that AI helps make the future better for humanity.
I think we should be more worried about AI‘s safety than we currently are. Especially, the future wars are going to be (and we’re seeing a taste of that with Ukraine), very much, drone wars. So if your drones are better than their drones, then you win, basically, it’s what will happen.”
Two Goals: Starship To Orbit And Self-Driving Cars
In response to the closing question, “what keeps you up at night?” Elon stated,
“I’m fundamentally a technologist, it’s kind of important, or an engineer, so, yes sometimes people call me a businessman, I have to do business, I have to have a group of people because I can’t just do this in a garage by myself.
But, I am fundamentally an engineer or a technologist and so the two technologies I am focused on trying to ideally, get done before the end of the year are getting our Starship to orbit, which I think is important for expanding consciousness beyond Earth and life beyond Earth. And then, having the Tesla cars be able to do self-driving. So have self-driving in wide release at least In the USA, and hopefully, potentially in Europe, depending on regulatory approval.”
CONCLUSION
Some of the main points made by Elon Musk in the Norway interview that really caught my attention:
Twitter algorithm should be open-source, and Elon believes in the free flow of ideas and free speech.
Elon explains that in order for humanity to have a compelling future for civilization, we must have a clear path to a sustainable energy future.
When asked what are the limiting factors governing the rate at which we can transition to sustainable energy? Elon explains that Lithium, Iron and Carbon are plentiful. He says, “The main limitations are not that these metals are exceptionally rare, but that there’s a tremendous amount of processing equipment to take the ore and turn it into battery-grade materials. Because the battery grade anode and cathode have to be extremely pure in order for the battery to last for a long time. So, it’s sort of processing of those elements.”
Similarly, Elon was asked again if there is a limiting function to the transition to sustainable energy, and he explains, “I don’t see a limiting function, it’s really just, what actions can we take to have it be faster? And it’s going to be, increasing the rate at which we can convert the ore into battery-grade materials. That will set the rate at which we can build electric vehicles and stationary battery packs to capture solar and wind.”
We are moved to action by Elon’s explanation of risk: He says, “Like I said, if the outcome is important enough, even if the probability of success is low, I think, still do it, in my view. some things are very important, and in order to have a good future, if we don’t do them then we are in big trouble, and so how much of a risk really is it? Because if we don’t take those actions we won’t have a good future. I think the riskiest thing would be no action.”
If you know Elon, he has warned us all about the dangers of AI many times before. Here is expresses great concern over developing artificial intelligence in the context of war. He cautions, “I think we should be more worried about AI’s safety than we currently are. Especially, the future wars are going to be (and we’re seeing a taste of that with the Ukraine), very much, drone wars. So if your drones are better than their drones, then you win, basically, it’s what will happen.”
As the world’s Technoking, Elon explains he is most driven to get Starship to orbit this year and have Tesla cars be able to do self-driving. “But, I am fundamentally an engineer or a technologist and so the two technologies I am focused on trying to ideally, get done before the end of the year are getting our Starship to orbit, which I think is important for expanding consciousness beyond Earth and life beyond Earth. And then, having the Tesla cars be able to do self-driving.”
Tesla Gigafactory near Austin, cathode plant seen in the distance at 12 o’clock. September 3, 2022. cr. Joe TegtmeyerTesla builds massive battery cathode plant next to Gigafactory Texas near Austin, Sept 3 cr. Tegtmeyer
Exclusive to What’s Up Tesla – This article was created by Gail Alfar with the goal to preserve this interview in text or written form for the purpose of 1. education and 2. preserving the brilliant insight and words of Elon Musk. All Rights Reserved. September 4, 2022
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With the hot weather we are having this summer, why not grab a cold beverage, and join me to soak in what I think might be Elon Musk’s “first principles” approach to addressing today’s declining birthrate?
Historically, Being Wealthy Has Led to Having Fewer Kids
Elon Musk was asked about the declining birthrate on Johnna Crider’s podcast.
Elon said,
“The declining birthrate is somewhat counterintuitive, but generally, the wealthier someone is, the fewer kids they have.
I’m an exception, but it’s quite rare. Basically, the higher the education level and the wealthier people are, the fewer kids they have.
So it’s not a money thing. In fact, it seems the opposite, like the more money that someone has, the fewer kids they have.
Somebody who is living as the 2022 standard for the poverty level would be really, I mean they have access to things that the richest person didn’t have 100 years ago.”
Johnna asked, “Do you have any other thoughts or ideas on how to reverse population decline?”
“The population decline problem, I think is possibly the biggest risk to civilization or its certainly one of the biggest risks.
First of all, a lot of people think that there’s too many humans on the planet and the planet can’t sustain this number of humans. This is absolutely not true.
We could double the population without any meaningful damage to the environment. You can put all the humans on earth in the city of New York. That’s the cross-sectional area of humans. They could literally fit in the city of New York on one floor, you don’t even need high-rises. And if you’re on a plane flight and you look down and you say, “what percentage of the time, if I were to drop a ball, would that ball hit a person?” Basically zero.
Even in a city like LA, where we think, “oh, that’s a crowded city,” looking at it from above, what’s the cross-sectional area of humans relative to the rest of the ground?” It’s much less than 1%, even in LA.
So if you’re in a big city environment and you see a lot of people you sort of extrapolate that to everywhere, but it’s actually very rare to see a concentration of humans.
Earth is very sparsely populated with humans. There’s not enough humans, far from being too many. I think people are still sort of operating on the assumption that the population is growing like crazy when in fact the opposite is occurring. These numbers are easy to look up, they’re just on the internet. We had the lowest birthrate in recorded history last year.” – Elon Musk
“Far too many people are under the illusion that Earth is overpopulated, even though birth rate trends are so obviously headed to population collapse” – Elon Musk
False perceptions persist that fewer kids are better for the earth’s environment. Credit: Elon Musk on After Skool’s video “Population COLLAPSE is Coming.”
Supporting Families at Tesla, SpaceX, Neuralink and The Boring Co.
In addition to being very vocal about underpopulation, Elon Musk is making sure families get needed financial support at all four of his companies. The Musk Foundation is also now tasked with donating directly to families.
“Kids are worth it if at all possible. I’m planning to increase childcare benefits at my companies significantly. Hopefully, other companies do same. Also, Musk Foundation plans to donate directly to families. Hopefully, details to be announced next month.” – Elon Musk
(article update, July 12) Elon Musk responded on Twitter to this article, saying “Children are essential to the future.” His comment led to over 2000 people giving their opinions on underpopulation.
Elon Musk carefully explains that wealthier people have fewer kids. In a sense, even people living at the 2022 poverty level are better off than wealthier people in times past.
Oddly, this counterintuitive situation has parallelled a lower overall birthrate.
There are hundreds of millions of people in the world who lack literacy and/or access to the internet, but for those who do have it, you can learn almost anything online.
When asked if he has any other thoughts or ideas on how to reverse population decline, Elon Musk uses the first-principles approach in correcting the false notion that there are too many humans on the planet for the earth to sustain, “I think people are still sort of operating on the assumption that the population is growing like crazy when in fact the opposite is occurring.”
Finally, Elon Musk has directed both the Musk Foundation and his companies to directly support families with children.
My thoughts
Most people are surprised to find out I have 5 kids. I do, and they are all amazing! After we had our 5th, my husband and I wanted more. My husband’s logic was that the USA is wealthier than most countries and he liked my parenting style. Kids really DO grow up fast, making parenting easier and less of a challenge than I once thought.
I think first-principle thinking can be applied to population collapse. Here are a few of my observations:
Raise awareness that population decline is a real problem, in the process people, will stop thinking that there are too many people
After Skool created a great education video featuring Elon Musk, Chamath Palihapitiya, Dr. Shanna Swan, Jodan B. Peterson, Chris Williamson, and Dave Chappelle, you can view it on Youtube
Change the fact that wealthier people have less kids. As world literacy and education and internet connectivity rise, this will become more important
The Tesla Optimus Bot can help relieve the difficulty we will face with too few young people to care for older people
Optimus can also perform tedious jobs that people find unattractive
Though it may be inevitable that we will experience population collapse, we as a society can still work towards lessening the severity of it. We can work towards correcting misunderstandings about it. Companies can increase childcare benefits, encouraging and supporting their families.
What are your thoughts on this topic? Do you agree with Elon Musk?
Downtown Austin, Texas at night. Credit: David Gallentino on Unsplash
In addition to solving the problem of underpopulation, Elon Musk said, “I want to do everything we can to maximize the use of technology to help achieve a better future for humanity. To that end, any area that contributes to a sustainable future is worthy of our investment.” You can read more about this in my article, “Read Elon Musk’s essay on technology for a better future.”
Gail Alfar. Exclusive to What’s Up Tesla – This blog post was created utilizing STARLINK satellite services. All Rights Reserved. July 9, 2022
Welcome back to What’s Up Tesla! I’m celebrating today with you the fantastic opportunity I had to meet Elon Musk at Gigafactory Texas this past week. I was invited to be present during Johnna Crider’s interview for her podcast, “Getting Stoned: Interview With Elon Musk.” So let’s have a slice of Pecan Pie, and enjoy!
Elon Musk explained details about Master Plan Part 3 and making sure the power stays on in an easy-to-understand way. I am excited to share his words with you in this article!
3 Pillars to a Sustainable Energy Future
In the interview, Elon Musk said
“There are three pillars to a sustainable energy future.
One is electric transport, the other is sustainable power generation, primarily through solar and wind, and then the third is stationary battery energy storage because the sun doesn’t shine all the time and the wind doesn’t blow all the time.
You’ve got to store the energy while the sun is shining and the wind is blowing in the stationary batteries and then those batteries provide power to the grid.
We can have a fully sustainable energy earth just with those three things.
Tesla is working on all those three things.”
“There are three pillars to a sustainable energy future.” – Elon Musk
“The stationary battery part is a big deal and we are ramping that up.
It’s going to be a very big part of our business long term. It’s a very important part of the total energy solution for earth.
Our estimate is that you need about 300 Terawatt hours of energy storage or 300,000 Gigawatt hours. Other people may come up with different numbers but in order to fully transition the earth including all electricity, transport and heating, I think it’s probably around that number.
So, that’s a lot of batteries that need to get made. And if you assume a battery life, before it gets recycled, of 20 years roughly, then you need 15 Terawatt hours a year of annual production at steady state. So, 15,000 Gigawatt hours a year.
Our current production is much less than that. I think we might be approaching 1000 Gigawatt hours or thereabouts at this point.”
Giga Texas Battery Cell Production [credit: Tesla]
Master Plan Part 3
“And this is like my, sort of, my Masterplan Part 3. It’s about scaling. How do we scale?
How do we get to that fully sustainable energy economy?
And what tonnage do we need of what materials?
And what is maybe the best way to get all of those materials and turn them into batteries?
But the fundamental governor of the rate at which we can transition to sustainability is the rate at which we can grow the output of lithium-ion batteries.”
In response to Johnna’s comment that the weakest part of Texas is the grid, and here comes Tesla trying to strengthen that weakest part, Elon replied
“The batteries are helpful even without sustainable energy because they can sort of load balance the grid so if you have power spikes the batteries can absorb the power spike.
If it dips or there’s a drop in power or an increase in power, like power fluctuations, the batteries can smooth it out.
And so the Tesla Megapack and Powerwalls and stuff can be really helpful for stabilizing the grid even in the absence of sustainable energy.”
Making Sure the Power Stays on in Texas
I asked Elon Musk if he could talk a little about Distributed Energy Resources [DERs] and if Gigafactory Texas could be protected in the event of an emergency, Elon replied,
“Well, I think this is going to be in terms of batteries, a combination of large batteries, sort of utility-scale batteries with very big installations. Like we just did a big thing with PG&E at Moss Landing in California which is going to be very important for maintaining power in California. There is a number of other installations happening. And then at the local level, you’ve got the Powerwalls that collectively can stabilize the grid within a neighborhood. So, the combination of centralized batteries with Megapack and distributed batteries at homes and businesses with powerwall working together can have a very positive effect in making sure the power stays on.” – Elon Musk
Tesla Megapacks at Moss Landing with PG&E [credit PG&E]
I stated that I think it brings people hope when we think about how much people depend on energy for just about everything. Elon replied,
Absolutely, energy is the foundation of the economy. Civilization would crumble immediately if we didn’t have it. There would be mass starvation. Terrible. – Elon Musk
Conclusion
Elon Musk wastes no time explaining that Tesla is working on the three pillars to a sustainable energy future. These are electric transport, sustainable power generation, and stationary battery energy storage. Elon’s Master Plan Part 3 aims to quickly solve the problem of how to get to a sustainable energy economy. Elon said, “the fundamental governor of the rate at which we can transition to sustainability is the rate at which we can grow the output of lithium-ion batteries.” Energy is the foundation of the economy. Elon stated, “the combination of centralized batteries with Megapack and distributed batteries at homes and businesses with powerwall working together can have a very positive effect in making sure the power stays on.”
My thoughts
My impression of Elon Musk is that he’s extremely focused and dedicated. His attitude was one of genuine kindness and enthusiasm about doing the interview. Several times he also expressed a sense of urgency about wanting to get to work with the Tesla Team at Giga Texas that day.
The conference room the interview was in gives you a floor-to-ceiling view of the inside of the gigafactory [see below]. Factory sounds were present, including Model Y horns beeping beyond the glass. We are all a witness to the beginning of something very big. Gigafactory Texas will soon produce an unprecedented number of Model Y, batteries, and Cybertrucks at a steady, fast pace.
Many people are interested in learning more about energy storage, so to have the chance to ask Elon a question about Distributed Energy Resources [DERs] and keeping Gigafactory Texas’ power on was a real honor!
What would you ask Elon Musk if you had the chance?
Gigafactory Texas as seen from the interview conference room. [credit Gail Alfar, All Rights Reserved, June 25, 2022]
5 Takeaways from Tesla’s 2022 Shareholder Meeting This article features highlights of what Elon Musk said about Tesla Gigafactories, AI, Cybertruck, Optimus robot, how we can help support the mission, and more.
Reasons Why Tesla Has the Best Factory Safety in the Industry This article will bring you along with me as we look into how Tesla has become a leader in job site safety in manufacturing. Our focus will be on statements about workplace safety from Elon Musk at the 2022 Shareholder’s meeting and the Tesla 2021 Impact Report.
You can subscribe to this blog here, and you can listen to the entire interview with Elon Musk here and on Spotify or Apple Podcasts.
Gail Alfar. Exclusive to What’s Up Tesla – This blog post was created utilizing STARLINK satellite services. All Rights Reserved. July 3, 2022
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“Tesla will make sure that this is a gem, a gemstone for the area, for Germany, for Europe, and for the world” – Elon Musk [photo courtesy Tesla Welt Podcast]
Welcome back to my blog, I hope you’ll enjoy this week‘s post. I am posting part of Elon Musk‘s speech given on March 22, 2022 at Giga Berlin Brandenburg. The reason I am focusing on his speech in this blog post is that I believe it is a historically significant speech. It contains a roadmap for the future of our world as we transition away from fossil fuels and into a clean energy future, involving solar, wind, and battery storage and electric vehicles.
Elon’s speech inspires us to look towards a more positive future. So grab a warm blanket, a good beverage, and enjoy!
Thank you for your hard work which has led to this great day, and it was amazing to see how excited the customers were to receive their cars. It was just super good vibes and it bided very well for the future of Giga Berlin Brandenburg.
I think it’s worth remembering that every car that we make is a step in the direction of a sustainable future. The thing about this factory and the cars that we make is that it gives people hope about the future and it’s like it’s very important to have reasons to be excited about the future. Often people are depressed or sad about the future because they think it won’t be good but what we’re doing here is with every car we make, with every battery we make, we’re making the future better. So what you are doing really matters, it makes a difference.
“I’m sort of working on the Master Plan Part 3”
Elon Musk
I’m sort of working on the Master Plan Part 3. Yes, it’s going to be good. But a huge part of that is scaling to high volume. So in order for us to really affect the world in a positive way- because we get a lot of press, we get a lot of attention- but say how many vehicles have we made as a percentage of total vehicles in the world? Because there are 2 billion vehicles in the world. Well, so far, we’re actually well below 1% and not even 1/2 a percent. So, it’s essential for us to really affect the future in a positive way. We have to make a lot of cars. It’s the only way. So that’s why we call it a Gigafactory, it’s very big.
We’re starting off with the Model Y and we’re going to do a number of exciting additional vehicles here. So I think this overall is going to be a center of excellence for sustainable energy in general, and it’s really going to help the world. I look forward to doing it with you and once again, thanks for everything!
“At Tesla, we really try to do the right thing. We want to be a company that you can believe in, in your heart and soul.”
Elon Musk
In addition to the work that we do here, we also inspire and encourage the rest of the industry to go towards electrification. I think it’s fair to say that without Tesla, without the work that the Tesla team has done, the rest of the industry would not be moving so quickly towards electrification. That’s also why we open-sourced our patents. We have made our patents freely available to the other car makers, because it was the right thing to do. No other company has done that far as I know. At Tesla, we really try to do the right thing. We want to be a company that you can believe in, in your heart and soul. In order to do that, we must be a company that does the right thing.
In response to a question about when Tesla would go to South America, and maybe some other markets, Elon stated,
We definitely want to go to the world, the challenge we have right now- it’s a high-class problem - the orders we have are well in excess of our production, so sometimes people will say, “why aren’t you in all these other markets and why don’t you make all these other different versions of the product like different cars like where is the Tesla semi-truck and the Cybertruck and the Roadster?” The challenge we have is that our orders far exceed our production, so, you know… ‘ A high-class problem.’ But we need to have our production get to the point where it exceeds our current orders and then it makes sense to expand to additional markets and to have additional products. Because, if we add complexity and we don’t add production volume, then we’ve not actually done anything more.
The good is a function of how many vehicles we are able to make. As we are able to ramp up production and satisfy demand in our existing markets, then we will expand to other markets and we will also add additional products. Last year there were a lot of supply chain challenges with chips, everyone knows about the chip shortage. This year there are still some chip shortages. Next year, I think will be a challenge with total battery production. Certainly, if you start going, like 2 to 3 years out, it’s all about how many gigawatt-hours of battery are produced. That will be the limiting factor.
And then going even further down into the supply chain, what is the right battery materials that are being mined and refined? And obviously, you want to do that in an environmentally sensitive way. In the grand scheme of things is “how many terawatt hours of battery can be produced per year.” Our rough calculation is that about 300 TWHR is needed to transition the world to a sustainable energy economy. This is a lot of batteries basically. So we want to try to do as much of that as possible. I think we are doing a pretty good job, we are growing by 70% to 80% per year on average and maybe even faster than that in the future. So that is, I think, the answer to ‘why not more markets, and why not more products?’
When asked what he was most proud of, Elon responded,
I am most proud of the amazing work done by the Tesla team, to scale at the rate that we are scaling and make compelling products that people love. You know, you think about, how many products can you buy that you really love? It’s so few, you know, and it would be great if people made more products that you love.
“At Tesla, we really focus on making products that people love.”
Elon Musk
And Tesla is a rare company that actually makes products you love. It brings you joy every day, that’s great. If you look at our rate of growth, Tesla is the fastest-growing company in history that makes a large manufactured product. So the next fastest was the Ford Model T and that was 100 years ago and we are actually growing faster than the Ford Model T, which is crazy!
Elon Musk explains Giga Berlin Model Y will be offered in a deep complex red and liquid silver
With respect to colors, which colors will be available from this factory?
Colors are always a challenge because when you think about You do not only need to manufacture it but you need to service it and fix it for like 20 years. You have to think about what are we going to put the service team through? You know, managing all these colors? So we have to be careful with a total number of colors but, we obviously are going to make some special colors here because - and it’s more than just color itself but it’s the layers of paint to get the dimensionality - we’re going to make a really special red, which I think a lot of people have seen. It’s like 13 layers of paint. The layers give you dimensionality. It makes the color look deep and complex. and then we will also have silver. It will have maybe eight layers, and it’s going to be really special. Like kind of liquid silver and a deep red. A deep complex red. In a few months, we will make this special deep dark red and quicksilver.
I think it will be the best paint on any production car that is not made for a show or something like that. And you have to design the paint job especially for 13 steps.
Elon answered questions about battery composition, as well as when FSD beta might come to Europe,
I think will be ready to show it to regulators in the European Union, maybe in two or three months. But then we have got to do quite a lot of work for all of the special use cases in Europe. As you know, the roads vary quite a lot by country. The road rules, and the way the lines are painted, are different. And then you have to recognize all the different languages. It’s quite difficult to do full self-driving in Europe. Much more complex than say, the USA or Canada. There are a lot of little tricky things, the rules are not the same. But I think, probably, we can start doing FSDbeta maybe later this year in Europe. Depending on regulatory approval. Things are different in the USA, in the USA, things are legal by default. In Europe, they are illegal by default.
So, we have to get approval beforehand, whereas in the USA, you can do it on your own cognizance, more or less.
But as for what the next target is, Elon responded
I guess the next target is, to really scale production this year, and try to make as many cars as we can. We want to complete the development of the Cybertruck and be ready for production next year. Hopefully, have enough battery pack capability to start the Tesla semi-truck. Hopefully, we may complete the engineering of the new roadster, and then there are some future products that are also pretty important. There’s also stationary storage, new versions of the Tesla solar roof and Powerwall 3. There are a lot of things. So we have a very exciting product pipeline.
When asked what makes him happy, Elon responded with,
“It makes me happy to see you guys happy“
Elon Musk
There was a question from the audience was about production capacity and Elon responded,
Twenty million cars in 10 years. And that would be a good number because there are 2 billion cars and trucks in the world that are in active use. So 20 million would be one percent of the global fleet per year.
Waving goodbye, Elon said,
“Thanks again guys, love you.”
Elon Musk
This was my eleventh blog post and one of my favorite. I am extremely thankful that Tesla Giga Berlin-Brandenburg is open and producing wonderful electric vehicles. Each vehicle will bring happiness and joy to its owners. I have owned a Tesla since December 2019, and I love driving it around Austin. I went to see Gigafactory Texas a few days ago, and I am very excited about the future of electric vehicles made in Texas. I hope to learn more about both Gigafactories over time. I know that you also share this enthusiasm with me and many others. We are truly living in exciting times.
Elon Musk delivers an inspiring speech at Giga Berlin Brandenburg [credit Tesla]
Gail Alfar, [edited by Sarah Alfar], Exclusive to What’s Up Tesla – All Rights Reserved. March 26, 2022
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Hello, I’m Gail Alfar, a Tesla owner in Austin, Texas. I love to share good vibes about Tesla, Giga Texas, Tesla China & Tesla Solar. I really do believe our future is bright! I recently rented a shared office space to start “What’s Up Tesla,” and a funny thing happened to me.
Have you ever been locked out? I went into a secret room that was filled with beautiful art. The door locked behind me and I was forced to exit the area. Outside, the hallway was empty, except for a Pepsi someone had left sitting on the floor. Eventually a stranger came along and unlocked the door. “You need to get back in, there’s lots of work to do.”
His words reminded me of why I am writing this blog. I have to do more to support the mission of Tesla and Elon Musk, as there is still a very long road ahead.
“While 2021 was a defining year for our company, we believe we are just at the very early stages of our journey. Thank you for being part of it.” Tesla
Tesla Giga Texas (Source: Tesla Q4 and FY2021 Update)
October 7, 2021: Tesla Headquarters is officially Austin, Texas. Elon Musk announced this historic move at the Tesla 2021 Annual Meeting of Stockholders.
January 26, 2022: Tesla Q4 and Full Year 2021 Financial Results are a game-changer, revealing that making electric cars is actually more profitable than making combustion engine cars!
“2021 was a breakthrough year for Tesla. There should no longer be doubt about the viability and profitability of electric vehicles. With our deliveries up 87% in 2021, we achieved the highest quarterly operating margin among all volume OEMs, based on the latest available data, demonstrating that EVs can be more profitable than combustion engine vehicles.” Tesla
My view is that 2021 was the year for Giga Shanghai and the Fremont Factory to shine! The two factories had a combined record number of vehicle deliveries of 0.94 million in 2021. For comparison, these same two factories produced and delivered 0.5 million vehicles in 2020.
Elon Musk acknowledged Tesla will build more Gigafactories in addition to Giga Texas and Giga Berlin-Brandenburg [locations may be announced by the end of the year]. On the one hand factories should ideally be close to customers. On the other hand, it is so critical to build gigafactories, that I argue there should be a second ultra fast and efficient gigafactory in China.
Tesla allowed us a view into the assembly line in Giga Texas. We see Austin Model Y seats being mounted on a structural battery pack. This shift in manufacturing means all Tesla Gigafactories can produce vehicles even faster [and more profitable] with less parts. This is part of Tesla’s winning plan to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy. Make no mistake though, this was and still is a painfully difficult journey for Tesla!
“Prototypes are easy, production is hard.”
Elon Musk
Gigafactory Texas- Attaching Seats to a Structural Battery Pack (Source: Tesla Q4 and FY2021 Update)
I used to think that a “Financial Result” meeting should only be about Tesla’s hardcore production and profitability. Now I wholeheartedly endorse allowing Elon Musk to speak in order to draw listeners into imagining a wonderful world of the future.
Allow me to share a futuristic scenario I envisioned after listening to Elon Musk speak at the “Full Year 2021 Financial Results” meeting:
Here, all vehicles are fully autonomous, so imagine for a moment a world filled with Cybertrucks, Model Y and many other EVs in their most durable forms, all capable of driving almost 24/7. The cost to get from one place to another is low, and people prefer to use entertaining Robotaxis. Its rare to see anyone owning a personal vehicle.
In crowded places, there are tunnels beckoning people underground, and away from the traffic up above. Many tunnel entrances are repurposed parking lots or garages. People wonder why there were so many of these strange things built.
Everywhere, we see friendly Optimus humanoid robots. Optimus are doing almost any kind of menial task, or any task that takes place in uncomfortable situations or temperatures.
As news headlines proclaim a human labor shortage, Tesla Gigafactories roll out large numbers of Optimus. These kind, sentient humanoid robots help to ease the labor shortage, and propel the economy into a stable place. Optimus helps build Tesla HVAC and hot water systems. They even help install systems in homes.
"I've designed your home now for maximum efficiency and comfort, test it out and let me know what you think, see you tomorrow as I must go get recharged at the local solar-port Megapack," declares Optimus while climbing into a Robotaxi that has gently pulled up playing Sandstorm on the boombox.
Thanks for reading my first blog post. I’m looking forward to creating interesting takes on Tesla to share with YOU most Saturdays! Listen to the entire Tesla Q4 and Full Year 2021 Financial Results here.
By the way, I drank that Pepsi and I still have the bottle, just to remind myself not to get locked out again.
5 Takeaways from Tesla’s 2022 Shareholder Meeting This article features highlights of what Elon Musk said about Tesla Gigafactories, AI, Cybertruck, Optimus robot, how we can help support the mission, and more.
Reasons Why Tesla Has the Best Factory Safety in the Industry This article will bring you along with me as we look into how Tesla has become a leader in job site safety in manufacturing. Our focus will be on statements about workplace safety from Elon Musk at the 2022 Shareholder’s meeting and the Tesla 2021 Impact Report.
Gail Alfar, author. Exclusive to What’s Up Tesla – January 29, 2022. All Rights Reserved. My goal as an author is to support Tesla (the most American vehicle manufacturer) and Elon Musk in both making life better on earth for humans and becoming a space-fairing civilization.
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