Category: Elon Musk Talk

Sandy Munro and Elon Musk Interview Transcript

Gail AlfarLeave a comment

I hope this article finds you well and that you have a moment to absorb the awesome words of Elon Musk. Whenever I read Elon’s words, it is like getting a high voltage injection of happiness and inspiration.

The video was originally posted on X but has since been deleted, so this highlights the importance of preserving such conversations. If this interview is also removed from YouTube, it risks being lost in history. That’s why documenting the remarkable words of Elon Musk, the greatest genius of our time, is critical. I’ve documented many of Elon’s talks.

Sandy Munro: Hey, boys and girls, and all technical kind of people as well! Thanks so much for joining us. I’m here again with Mr. Elon Musk. Elon, it’s great to see you! By the way, I gotta tell you, the last time I was here, there were dirt floors. This building is absolutely amazing now—six months?!

Elon Musk: Yeah, take a look. There are some really nice touches, like that mezzanine area over there.

Elon Musk: The team can work in the office here. One of the things I like is making sure engineering and production are closely connected. That way, engineering isn’t up in some ivory tower, disconnected from the problems on the production floor. When engineering is right here, you walk out, see the production floor, and can actually see where you’ve designed something that’s difficult to manufacture. You can see the pain in the factory—where things aren’t getting made, what’s choking the production line. We have the same setup in Hawthorne for Falcon 9 and Dragon.

Sandy Munro: I was looking around in here, and I haven’t seen much going on, but I’m assuming that has to do with everything else that’s happening. I mean, you’ve got interviews every two minutes—that’s amazing!

Elon Musk: Actually, I’m only doing four interviews, and you’re one of them.

Sandy Munro: Well, you know what? I’m very, very grateful, I really am. But I’d like to get into some of the other technical stuff—your build area or whatnot is brilliant. I was asked to make comments to somebody else that’s making rocket ships, and I said, “You’re doing them sideways, why? Why aren’t you doing them vertically? You’ll never get them around.” And yet, everything here is so perfect. I mean, you didn’t get this idea from Boeing, because they make them horizontally as well.

Elon Musk: Yeah, we make Falcon 9 horizontally. I guess you can do it either way, horizontal or vertical. If it’s horizontal, you need things to keep the barrel sections round; otherwise, they just flatten out on you. But if you’re going to do the sections vertically, you need a lot of roof height. You can see how the factory progresses from a lower roof height to a medium roof height to a high roof height. So, you can really do it either way. Basically, you just need 9-meter rounding rings, which are kind of unwieldy. And we’re trying to design this with what, by rocket standards, is a high production rate.

Sandy Munro: That’s my next question, actually. What is your production rate per year?

Elon Musk: We’re aiming for 1,000 ships per year long-term. A thousand ships per year, and each one of those ships is the largest flying object ever made.

Sandy Munro: That’s pretty impressive. “Occupy Mars” You’ve got it on your shirt—gotta be okay. So, I can see how you can launch, and I can see how you might get there in a hurry. So, two questions I’ve got: One is propulsion. Are you going to be using ionic propulsion for the craft that’s actually going to head for Mars?

Elon Musk: Not currently, no. The amount we could speed up the journey with ion propulsion is very low. Ion thrusters have such low thrust, and to get that high specific impulse, you need a lot of energy. So, you’d have to unfurl massive solar panels and then stow them for entry. We don’t currently plan to use ion thrusters, but that could be a future optimization, maybe. If you want to get there faster, you’d need a higher transfer velocity from Earth. But then you’re going to need to use a lot of atmospheric braking or some amount of propulsive braking when you get to Mars. So your payload drops dramatically unless you coast all the way there, your payload drops quite a bit. Ultimately, you could see a path to turning a six-month journey into a three-month journey, but you would probably cut your payload by four.

Sandy Munro: So, the other thing is, okay, let’s say you get entry into the Martian atmosphere—or lack thereof…

Elon Musk: It’s similar to Earth at 100,000 feet. Most of the slowing down, even for Earth’s atmospheric reentry, occurs at 100,000 feet atmospheric density or above. Mars’ atmospheric density is about one percent that of Earth, but that’s actually plenty for getting to sonic velocity, maybe a little below subsonic.

Sandy Munro: So, okay, touchdown. Are you going to have thrusters to slow the craft?

Elon Musk: Oh, yes. For landing on Mars, Starship would land using thrusters with the Raptor engines, and it would land with a lot of payload. It’s different from Earth, where it’s delivering satellites to orbit and coming back much lighter. But if it’s going to Mars, it’s landing with maximum payload.

Sandy Munro: And that’s where I’m kind of like, are you going to have anything else to slow it down?

Elon Musk: Well, it’s just heat shield and thrusters.

Sandy Munro: Yeah.

Elon Musk: You do need quite a lot of propellant to slow it down because it’s coming in heavy with maximum payload. To your point earlier, the atmospheric density is only one percent that of Earth. So, you’re lucky if you can get subsonic on Mars, but you can certainly get the vast majority of the kinetic energy taken out with the atmosphere. And so, you’re going to need a lot more propellant than we need on Earth, because your terminal velocity is still going to be, you know, Mach 1-ish. And you’re heavy, so you’re going to need a lot more propellant to land.

Sandy Munro: So, how many… I’m assuming the first shot to Mars is not going to have people on it. You’re going to have to drop stuff for them and whatnot.

THE FIRST MISSIONS TO MARS ARE ALL ABOUT LANDING SAFELY

Elon Musk: The first missions to Mars are all about making sure the rocket can land safely. So, the first missions are focused on confirming that we can land without generating more craters on Mars. We want the crater count on Mars to stay constant—no new craters. As long as we don’t increment the crater count on Mars, and we feel confident that future missions are safe for people, then we would send people. You only get to do this every two years, roughly, because Earth and Mars align every 26 months for a launch window. So, you really have a small number of opportunities in our lifetime—maybe 15 or 20.

Sandy Munro: So, I was just wondering about that window. How many would you shoot up in that brief window you’ve got? Would you send four or five?

Elon Musk: Ultimately, we’ll send thousands.

Sandy Munro: No, I mean for the first one.

Elon Musk: It depends on how many rockets we have ready. The next Mars window is only 18 months from now. To send something to Mars, we still have to solve a lot of technical problems, and we’ve got to refill propellant in orbit. So, it’s going to be close as to whether we’re able to send test rockets to Mars by the end of next year. We might not make it, but we might. I’d say 50/50 right now. And we’d send, I don’t know, three to five, something like that.

Sandy Munro: That’s what I thought. I was interviewed a while ago, and I said five. That’s what I’d think—you’re going to send five up.

Elon Musk: That depends on how many we have.

HUMANITY’S PLANETARY BACKUP PLAN

Sandy Munro: I’ve got one last question, because she’s going like this [Sandy swirls his hand]. Have you got anything you’d like to tell the audience that no one has asked about yet?

Elon Musk: Well, I guess it’s worth repeating—people often ask why we’re doing this, because sometimes people are puzzled as to why we’re doing it. The reason we’re doing it is to make life, consciousness, multi-planetary, so as to preserve the future of civilization and consciousness, and to protect life as we know it. There’s always some chance of something going wrong on Earth. Overall, I am optimistic about earth, and I think if there’s even just a one percent chance of life and consciousness as we know it being annihilated on Earth, you’d want to protect against that by having a second planet to back up the biosphere and ensure the continuity of life and consciousness. This is the first time in Earth’s 4.5-billion-year history that this has been possible, so we should take advantage of this window while it’s still open. We don’t want to be complacent and assume a constant upward trajectory of civilization. Hopefully that happens, but it might not. This is about protecting the future of life itself.

Sandy Munro: As far as I’m concerned, that’s admirable. I think it’s a great idea. By the way, I like the idea of having children as well.

Elon Musk: No kids, no humans, no humanity.

Sandy Munro: Anyway, thank you again. I really appreciate it. Thank you. Good luck.

Transcript ends.

NOTE: In this third exclusive interview, Sandy and Elon Musk discuss SpaceX’s unique technical prowess, manufacturing methodology, and mission to occupy Mars.

CATCHING THE GIANT ROCKET

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Elon Musk: Congrats to the SpaceX team on catching the giant rocket!

Elon: It’s mind-blowing that the SpaceX team has caught the largest flying object ever made multiple times using a novel method of catching it with giant chopsticks!

[SpaceX employees and Elon pause to watch a video showing the booster, with fiery engines, descending through space, adjusting, and being caught with chopsticks.]

Elon: Have you ever seen that before?

[The video is awe-inspiring. Elon congratulates his team, calling it quite an achievement. Everyone cheers; it’s an emotional moment.]

Elon: We catch it this way, which has never been done before, to make the rocket rapidly reusable. If the super heavy booster, 30 feet in diameter, landed with legs on a pad, we’d have to pick it up, stow the legs, and move it back to the launch pad, which is difficult.

But catching it with the same tower that places it in the launch mount is the best for rapid reuse. It’s caught by the arms that placed it, then set back in the launch ring immediately. In principle, the super heavy booster can be reflown within an hour of landing. It returns in five or six minutes, gets caught, placed back, refilled with propellant in 30 to 40 minutes, and a ship placed on top. It could refly every hour or two.

Image Courtesy SpaceX, Inc and source Elon Musk’s Mars 2026 company talk.

On May 29, 2025, Elon Musk delivered a visionary speech at Starbase, Texas, the newly incorporated city and SpaceX’s hub for revolutionizing space travel. This transcript captures Musk’s electrifying address, detailing Starbase’s evolution from a sandbar to a powerhouse for building the world’s largest rockets. He highlights breakthroughs like rapidly reusable rockets, the Raptor 3 engine, and orbital propellant transfer, all pivotal for a self-sustaining Mars civilization. With vivid descriptions of catching boosters with “giant chopsticks” and plans for a million-ton Mars transfer, Musk inspires a future where anyone can visit Starbase or journey to Mars.

Elon Musk’s Vision for a Multiplanetary Future: Starbase and the Road to Mars, May 2025

Gail AlfarLeave a comment

On May 29, 2025, Elon Musk delivered his company speech at Starbase, Texas, the newly incorporated city and SpaceX’s hub for space travel to Mars. This transcript, which I have worked hard on to bring you accuracy, captures Elon’s valuable and historical words.

Elon details Starbase’s evolution from a sandbar to a powerhouse for building the world’s largest rockets. Elon highlights breakthroughs like rapidly reusable rockets, Raptor 3 engine, and orbital propellant transfer plans, all critical for a self-sustaining Mars civilization. With vivid descriptions of catching boosters with “giant chopsticks” and plans for a million-ton Mars transfer, our hero Elon inspires a future where anyone can visit Starbase or journey to Mars.

Elon Musk: The gateway to Mars. Here we are at the newly incorporated Starbase, Texas. This is the first new city made in America in, I think, quite a few decades. At least that’s what I’m told. It’s a very cool name, named because it’s where we’re going to develop the technology necessary to take humanity, civilization, and life as we know it to another planet for the first time in the 4.5 billion-year history of Earth.

[Lots of cheering. Elon shows a short video of the history of Starbase. He talks along with the images.]

Elon: We started with basically nothing. Starbase started as a sandbar with nothing.

[The video shows a prototype rocket and two open tents.]

Elon: Even those little things we built. That’s the original Mad Max rocket!

[Looking at the rocket from 2019, six years ago, the camera pans around it. The sun hits the side, revealing a gorgeous, surreal piece of steel.]

Elon: You know, lighting is very important for that Mad Max rocket.

[Elon is smiling, with his hand in a determined fist. He’s not afraid of silence; this is a tribute to that incredible rocket. Many employees in the audience may not have seen it in person; it’s six years old. Some may have been in high school at the time.]

Elon: Not long ago, there was basically nothing here. In about five or six years, thanks to the incredible work of the SpaceX team, we’ve built a small city. We built two gigantic launchpads and a gigantic rocket factory for a gigantic rocket. The cool thing is, anyone watching can come visit because our entire production facility and launch site are on a public highway. Anyone in South Texas can see the rocket up close, see the factory, and anyone interested in the largest flying object on Earth can drive down the public highway and see it! Pretty cool!

[Video progresses to Starbase 2025.]

Elon: We’re now at the point where we can produce a ship roughly every two or three weeks. We don’t always produce a ship every two or three weeks because we’re making design upgrades, but ultimately we’re aiming for the ability to produce 1,000 ships a year, so three ships a day.

[On the video, birds chirp, water glistens, and a hovercraft pulls gently away from Starbase Beach.]

Elon (smiling): That’s our hovercraft. We’re driving the booster down the road to the launch site. You see the Megabays. The cool thing for those watching is you can literally come here, drive down the road, and see it. This is the first time in history that’s been possible. That highway on the left is public. You can just come and see it, which I recommend. It’s very inspiring.

[Elon points to a render of a massive building.]

Elon: There’s a person next to it that looks like a tiny ant. That’s our Giga Bay! We’re expanding integration to produce 1,000 per year. The Giga Bay hasn’t been built yet, but we’re building it. It’s a truly enormous structure, one of the biggest in the world by some measures, designed for 1,000 Starships per year. We’re also building a Giga Bay in Florida, so we’ll have two facilities—one in Texas and one in Florida. It’s difficult to gauge the size of these buildings because you need a human for scale. When you see how tiny a human is next to it, you realize how enormous it is.

BUILD COMPARISON

Elon: When we look at our build comparison in vehicles per year, Boeing and Airbus make airplanes, but Starship will probably make as many Starships for Mars as Boeing and Airbus make commercial airplanes. This is an enormous scale, and each Starship is bigger than a 747 or an A380. In terms of Starlink satellites, version three satellites, we’ll make on the order of 5,000 per year, and at some point, closer to 10,000 per year. Those Starlink V3 satellites are roughly the size of a 737 (unfurled). They compare to the B-24 bomber in World War II. The scale of production is still small compared to Tesla.

[A large chart appears, showing Tesla’s massively scaled production: currently 1,773,443 cars per year.]

Elon: Tesla will probably double or triple that volume in the future. It puts things into perspective that it’s possible to build a vast number of interplanetary Starships. Even when comparing tonnage, Tesla and other car companies produce far more complex manufactured tonnage than SpaceX, showing it’s achievable. These numbers, while insanely high by traditional space standards, are achievable because they’ve been achieved in other industries.

Progress is measured by the timeline to establishing a self-sustaining civilization on Mars.

Elon: With each launch, especially early on, we learn more about what’s needed to make life multiplanetary and improve Starship to take hundreds of thousands, if not millions, to Mars. Ideally, we can take anyone who wants to go and bring all equipment necessary to make Mars self-sustaining, so Mars can grow by itself. Worst-case scenario, we reach the point where Mars can continue to grow even if supply ships from Earth stop for any reason. At that point, we’ve achieved civilization resilience, where Mars could rescue Earth or vice versa. Having two self-sustaining planets is incredibly important for long-term survival. A multi-planet civilization is likely to last ten times longer than a single-planet one because of risks like World War III, meteors, or supervolcanoes. With two planets, we keep going, then move beyond Mars to the asteroid belt, Jupiter’s moons, and other star systems, making science fiction reality. To achieve this, we need rapidly reusable rockets to keep the cost per ton to Mars as low as possible. That’s essential. We need rapidly reliable rockets—it’s like a pirate’s “Rrrr”: rapidly reusable, reliable rockets!

Congrats to the SpaceX team on catching the giant rocket.

Elon: It’s mind-blowing that the SpaceX team has caught the largest flying object ever made multiple times using a novel method of catching it with giant chopsticks!

[SpaceX employees and Elon pause to watch a video showing the booster, with fiery engines, descending through space, adjusting, and being caught with chopsticks.]

Elon: Have you ever seen that before?

[The video is awe-inspiring. Elon congratulates his team, calling it quite an achievement. Everyone cheers; it’s an emotional moment.]

Elon: We catch it this way, which has never been done before, to make the rocket rapidly reusable. If the super heavy booster, 30 feet in diameter, landed with legs on a pad, we’d have to pick it up, stow the legs, and move it back to the launch pad, which is difficult. But catching it with the same tower that places it in the launch mount is the best for rapid reuse. It’s caught by the arms that placed it, then set back in the launch ring immediately. In principle, the super heavy booster can be reflown within an hour of landing. It returns in five or six minutes, gets caught, placed back, refilled with propellant in 30 to 40 minutes, and a ship placed on top. It could refly every hour or two.

The next goal is to catch the ship.

Elon: We haven’t done this yet, but we will.

[A video shows a render of a Starship gently caught by chopsticks.]

Elon: We hope to demonstrate this later this year, maybe in two or three months. The ship would be placed on the booster, refilled, and flown again. The ship takes longer because it orbits Earth a few times until the ground track returns to the launchpad. It’s intended to be reflown multiple times per day.

RAPTOR 3

Elon: This is the new Raptor 3, an awesome engine! Big hand to the Raptor team. Raptor 3 requires no basic heat shield, saving mass and improving reliability. A small fuel leak will leak into the flaming plasma and not matter, unlike a boxed engine where it’s scary. It’ll take a few tries, but it’ll massively increase payload capability, efficiency, and reliability. It’s alien technology. Industry experts thought an incomplete Raptor 3 picture wasn’t firing, but it was at unprecedented efficiency.

[Lots of cheers and applause.]

Elon: That’s one clean engine. We simplified the design, incorporated secondary fluid circuits and electronics into the structure, so everything is contained and protected. It’s a marvel of engineering.

PROPELLANT TRANSFER

Elon: A key technology for Mars is orbital propellant transfer, like aerial refueling for airplanes, but for rockets. It’s never been done but is technically feasible. Two Starships get together; one transfers fuel and oxygen—almost 80% oxygen, just over 20% fuel. A Starship with payload goes to orbit, others refill its propellant, and then it departs for Mars or the Moon. We hope to demonstrate this next year.

PLASMAJET TESTING

Elon: Mars’ atmosphere is ~95% CO2. The heat shield entering Mars encounters more than twice the atomic oxygen compared to Earth. Developing a reusable orbital heat shield is extremely difficult. Even the Shuttle’s required months of refurbishment. Only advanced ceramics, glass, aluminum, or carbon-carbon survive reentry stresses without eroding or cracking. This will be the first reusable orbital heat shield, needing extreme reliability. It’ll take years to hone, but it’s achievable within physics. Mars’ CO2 atmosphere becomes plasma, producing more free oxygen than Earth’s (~20% oxygen), oxidizing the heat shield. We test rigorously in a CO2 atmosphere for both Earth and Mars.

MARS ENTRY HEATSHIELD

Elon: Derived from Starship’s current heat shield, we want the same structure and material for Earth and Mars to test hundreds of times on Earth before Mars, ensuring reliability.

NEXT GEN STARSHIP

[The video shows a taller, majestic Starship.]

Elon: Next-generation Starships have improvements. It’s taller, with a better interstage between ship and booster. Struts allow flame from hot staging—lighting ship engines while booster engines fire—to exit easily, and we bring the interstage back instead of discarding it.

SUPER HEAVY

  • HEIGHT (m) 72.3
  • PROPELLANT CAPACITY (t) 3650
  • LIFTOFF THRUST (tf) 8240

[Excited reaction from SpaceX engineers due to increased propellant capacity and thrust.]

Elon: A little taller, from 69 meters to 72 meters. Propellant capacity may push to 3,700 tons, long-term maybe 4,000 tons. Liftoff thrust will keep rising, ultimately close to 10,000 tons. The booster looks naked because Raptor 3 engines don’t need a heat shield, standing in flaming plasma. It’s lighter and looks amazing.

STARSHIP

  • HEIGHT (m) 52.1
  • PROPELLANT CAPACITY (t) 1550
  • THRUST (tf) 1600

Elon: The ship is longer, more capable, moving to 1,550 tons of propellant, likely 20% more long-term. The heat shield is sleeker, with smooth boundaries, no jagged tiles. It looks sleek. This version has six engines, but a future version will have nine. Starship version three achieves all key elements. New technology takes three major iterations to work well. With Raptor 3 and Starship/Booster version 3, we’ll achieve a rapidly reusable, reliable rocket with orbital refilling—everything needed to make life multiplanetary. We aim to launch version three by year-end.

FUTURE STARSHIP

[An image of three Starships shows progress and future plans.]

Elon: The left is current, the middle is by year-end, and the right is long-term. The future Starship is 142 meters tall (current: 121 meters, next-gen: 124.4 meters). The middle version will be Mars-capable, followed by performance improvements. Like Falcon 9, we’ll make it longer and increase payload. By year-end, it’ll be capable of making life multiplanetary, then we’ll hone efficiency, reduce cost per ton and per person to Mars, and make it so anyone can move to Mars to build a new civilization. It’s the best adventure possible.

[Lots of applause.]

Elon: Ultimately, we’ll have 42 engines, as prophesied by Douglas Adams in The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy. The answer to life’s meaning is 42, so the Starship stack will have 42 engines.

[Lots of applause.]

MASS TO ORBIT

Elon: It’s remarkable—200 tons payload to orbit with full reusability, twice the Saturn V Moon rocket’s capability, which was fully expendable. Starship is fully reusable.

MOON BASE ALPHA

Elon: Without reusability, Starship would have ~400 tons to orbit. It’s a big rocket needed for multiplanetary life. Along the way, we could have a Moon base like Moonbase Alpha, a gigantic science station for universe research.

MARS TRANSFER WINDOWS

Elon: You can go to Mars every 26 months. The next opportunity is November–December next year, in ~18 months. We’ll try for it, with a 50-50 chance if we figure out orbital refilling in time. If achieved, we’ll launch the first uncrewed Starship to Mars by year-end.

[Lots of applause.]

Elon: The distance to Mars is ~1,000 times farther than the Moon. You create an elliptical orbit with Earth at one point and Mars at the other, timing the ellipse to intersect Mars. This is shown on Starlink Wi-Fi routers. Starlink funds Mars missions. Thanks to everyone supporting Starlink—you’re helping make humanity a space civilization.

CANDIDATE BASE LOCATIONS

Elon: We’re looking at the Arcadia region, a lead candidate due to ice for water and suitable terrain. It’s my daughter’s name, too (smiling). First Starships will gather critical data.

Elon: First flights will send Optimus robots to explore and prepare for humans. If we launch by year-end, arriving in 2027, it’ll be epic to see Optimus on Mars. Two years later, if landings succeed, we’ll send humans to build infrastructure. We might do two robot landings before humans, just to be safe.

MARS 2028

Elon: Develop power generation, mining, construction, propellant generation, habitats, communications, and more.

[Elon shows an awe-inspiring picture of Optimus bots on a construction beam above Mars.]

COMMUNICATIONS ON MARS

Elon: We’ll use a Starlink version for Mars Internet. Even at light speed, communication takes 3.5–22 minutes due to Mars’ position. High-bandwidth communication is challenging, but Starlink will achieve it.

HUMANS ON MARS

Elon: Subsequent missions will carry more people and thousands of tons of cargo, laying groundwork for a permanent presence. The goal is to make Mars self-sustaining quickly. Launch pads may be farther for safety. Mars needs lots of solar power. Initially, you’ll need Mars suits and glass domes until terraforming.

Elon: We aim to transfer over 1 million tons per Mars window for a serious civilization.

SPACEPORTS

Elon: We’ll need many spaceports. With transfer windows, 1,000–2,000+ ships gather in orbit like Battlestar Galactica, then depart. Mars needs hundreds of landing pads to handle thousands of inbound ships.

Elon: This is an incredible city on another planet, a new world. Martians can rethink civilization—government, rules, everything. It’s up to them. Let’s get it done!

Qatar Economic Forum Interview with Genius Elon Musk (transcript)

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“We are coming for those who organized the violence & death threats against Tesla. Remember this statement” – Elon Musk

Bloomberg: Hello, everyone, and Elon. Welcome to Qatar Economic Forum. How are you?

Elon Musk: Thank you for having me. I’m fine. How are you?

Bloomberg: Very well, thank you. Pleased to have you with us. Some in the audience in Doha have backed you financially over the years. Since 2022, much has changed. You’re running multiple companies and have a government role. I’ll move between topics to cover a lot. That’s okay?

Elon: That’s correct.

Bloomberg: You’re a CEO and government advisor. Tell me about your week. How’s your time split?

Elon: I travel a lot. Silicon Valley yesterday morning, LA evening, Austin now, D.C. tomorrow. Dinner with the President tomorrow night, Cabinet meetings, then back to Silicon Valley Thursday.

Bloomberg: Is it still one to two days a week on government work?

Elon: Yeah, that’s correct.

The Best Leadership: Tesla

Bloomberg: What does that mean for your corporate life? Tesla faced blowback recently. What’s your plan to turn around declining sales, and when will it happen?

Elon: It’s already turned around.

Bloomberg: Evidence? April sales in Europe show significant declines.

Elon: Europe’s our weakest market. We’re strong elsewhere, sales are doing well. No anticipated shortfall. Stock market sees it—over a trillion in market cap. It’s turned around.

Bloomberg: Still down in Europe compared to last year.

Elon: True for all manufacturers. No exceptions.

Bloomberg: You face a significant problem in Europe. Tesla’s aspirational, tied to the climate crisis. Now some drive with stickers saying, “I bought this before we knew Elon was crazy.”

Elon: Some buy because of how they view me. Lost some sales on the left, gained on the right. Sales are strong, no demand issue. Stock price near all-time highs shows things are fine.

Dedication to Tesla’s Master Plan

Bloomberg: How committed are you to Tesla? Will you be CEO in five years?

Elon: Short of dying, yes.

Bloomberg: Does your pay package affect your decision?

Elon: Not for this forum. Compensation should match incredible work. I’m confident Delaware activist rulings won’t affect future compensation.

Bloomberg: The judge struck down your $56 billion package, now valued at $100 billion. Are you relaxed about future pay? Is your Tesla commitment independent of pay?

Elon: No.

Bloomberg: So pay is relevant to your commitment?

Elon: Sufficient voting control to avoid being ousted by activists matters most. It’s about reasonable control, not money, especially with humanoid robots. Let’s move on.

Political Challenges

Bloomberg: Did Tesla’s recent challenges feel personal?

Elon: Yes.

Bloomberg: Did it make you regret your political endeavors?

Elon: I did what was needed. The violent reaction—threats, damage to my companies—was wrong. Those responsible will face justice.

Bloomberg: You’re referring to attacks on Tesla showrooms?

Elon: Burning cars, showrooms—unacceptable. Perpetrators and their funders will go to prison.

Bloomberg: Some in Europe turned against Tesla due to your politics, not violence. Wouldn’t you acknowledge that?

Elon: Objecting politically is fine. Violence, death threats, effigies aren’t. Legacy media justifying it is unconscionable.

SpaceX

Bloomberg: SpaceX. You said at West Point the future of warfare is AI and drones. Do you see SpaceX moving into weaponized drones?

Elon: SpaceX builds rockets, satellites, Internet terminals, not drones. We dominate space launch—90% of mass to orbit this year. Starlink’s 80% of active satellites, providing global connectivity. It lifts people out of poverty. We’ve declined weapons programs.

Vision for Starlink’s Growth

Bloomberg: Will SpaceX or Starlink go public soon?

Elon: Starlink may go public in the future.

Bloomberg: Time frame?

Elon: No rush. Public listing adds overhead, lawsuits. Shareholder derivative lawsuits in the U.S. need reform—they’re absurd.

Bloomberg: Will you push Trump to change this before a Starlink IPO?

Elon: Needs 60 Senate votes. Democrats won’t support it due to plaintiff’s bar influence. Texas’s law helps at the state level.

OpenAI, Grok and AI Regulation: Referees

Bloomberg: AI. You’re in this with Grok, co-founded OpenAI, left, and now have a lawsuit against them. Status?

Elon: I named OpenAI for open-source, nonprofit. Funded $50 million. They’re turning it for-profit, closed-source. Like a nonprofit for the Amazon becoming a lumber company. Lawsuit continues.

Bloomberg: They’ve partly walked back restructuring. No difference to you?

Elon: Just media talk. I’ll see them in court.

Bloomberg: You said in 2022 the U.S. needs an AI regulator like the FDA or FAA. Now you lean toward cutting regulation. Changed your mind?

Elon: No. Regulators are like referees. Too many in old fields like automotive, aerospace. AI is under-regulated—needs a few referees for public safety, not an army.

Transformative Government Advisory Role

Bloomberg: Your government role. You have billions in federal contracts, mostly SpaceX, and DOGE insider knowledge. Conflict of interest?

Elon: No. Advisors with economic interests are common. I have no formal power. If any contract was improper, it’d be front-page news. It’s not.

Bloomberg: Your competitors—Boeing, Blue Origin, Rocket Lab. DOGE’s access to their affairs could give insight. Conflict?

Elon: We review for relevance, value for money. Recommendations go to Secretaries, posted transparently on

doge.gov

, X. No accusations of conflict.

Bloomberg: Starlink’s sought globally, critical in Ukraine. Bloomberg reported South Africa bending rules for Starlink before Ramaphosa’s White House visit. Conflict?

Elon: No. South Africa’s racist laws are the issue. Mandela wanted equality. I can’t operate Starlink there because I’m not black. That’s wrong.

Bloomberg: Looks like they’re bending rules for you.

Elon: Does that seem right to you?

Bloomberg Dodges the Question

Bloomberg: Those rules aimed for economic equality. They’ve found a workaround.

Elon: Answer: Does it seem right?

Specifically, after Bloomberg raises the issue of South Africa bending rules for Starlink, Elon responds: “No, of course not. First of all, you should be questioning why are there racist laws in South Africa? That’s the first problem. That’s what you should be attacking. It’s improper for there to be racist laws in South Africa. The whole idea with what Nelson Mandela, who was a great man, proposed, was that all races should be on an equal footing in South Africa. That’s the right thing to do. Not to replace one set of racist laws with another set of racist laws, which is utterly wrong and improper. So that’s the deal, that all races should be treated equally and there should be no preference given to one or the other. Whereas there are now 140 laws in South Africa that give. That basically give strong preference to, if you’re black, South African and not otherwise. And so now I’m in this absurd situation where I was born in South Africa but cannot get a license to operate in Starlink because I’m not black.”

Bloomberg: Not for me to answer. About DOGE savings—pre-election, you said $2 trillion. Now

doge.gov

says $170 billion. What happened?

Elon: Absurd to expect instant $2 trillion. DOGE advises, doesn’t dictate. Progress is incredible.

Bloomberg: Is $2 trillion still the aim?

Elon: Savings depend on Congress, executive support. DOGE’s progress is excellent.

Bloomberg: You said $4 billion/day, but that won’t reach $2 trillion by July. Still the aim?

“The ability of DOGE to operate is a function of whether the government, and this includes the Congress, is willing to take our advice. We are not the dictators of the government. We are the advisors, and so we can, we can advise, and the progress we’ve made thus far, I think, is incredible. DOGE team has done incredible work, but the magnitude of the savings is proportionate to the support we get from Congress and from the executive branch of the government in general. So we’re not the dictators, we are the advisors. But thus far, as advisors, the DOGE team, to their credit, has made incredible progress.” – Elon

Elon: You’re trapped in a journalist’s dialogue tree. DOGE is advisory, not dictatorial. $170 billion saved is historic. More to come.

“There are 140 laws in South Africa that basically give strong preference to you if you are a Black South African and not otherwise.” – Elon Musk

Championing Efficient Governance

Bloomberg: Cutting waste is good. On USAID, Bill Gates said cuts could cost millions of lives. You called him out. Have you checked the data?

Elon: Gates, tied to Epstein, has no credibility. USAID claims lack evidence. Useful parts transferred to State Department. Much is fraud, graft.

Bloomberg: *PEPFAR, credited with saving 26 million lives, was frozen, partially waived. *UNAIDS says discontinuation could cause 4 million AIDS deaths by 2029. Gates might not be wrong.

Elon: AIDS medication program continues. Your premise is wrong. Another example?

Bloomberg: Not in entirety. UNAIDS lists disrupted services, like Lenacapavir rollout. They’d welcome your review.

Elon: If true, I’ll fix it.

Shaping a Bold Political Future

Bloomberg: Midterms spending. You spent heavily last election. Continue at that level?

Elon: Less in the future.

Bloomberg: Why?

Elon: I’ve done enough. Will spend if needed.

Bloomberg: Influence beyond U.S. How often do you speak to Putin?

Elon: Once, five years ago, on a video call.

Bloomberg: Only time? You mentioned challenging Putin to single combat.

Elon: That was an X post, not a call. Wall Street Journal is nonsense.

Bloomberg: I read widely, giving you a chance to respond. Thanks for clarifying.

Elon: Legacy media lies.

Revolutionizing Technology for Humanity

Bloomberg: Grok said your hardest challenge is managing ventures amid crises. Is this a pivotal year?

Elon: Every year’s pivotal. Starship’s full reusability, Neuralink’s telepathy and blindsight implants, AI superintelligence, Tesla’s unsupervised autonomy—all breakthroughs this year. I’m a technologist first.

Bloomberg: Elon, thank you for joining us at Qatar Economic Forum.

My thoughts

My thoughts are in this thread on X.

*Note (these acronyms were referred to in the interview)

  • ITAR: Used once as “ITAR,” referring to International Traffic in Arms Regulations. Not spelled out.
  • USAID: Used as “USAID,” referring to United States Agency for International Development. Not spelled out.
  • PEPFAR: Used as “PEPFAR,” referring to President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief. Not spelled out.
  • UNAIDS: Used as “UNAIDS,” referring to Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS. Not spelled out.

Elon Musk’s Talk at Saudi Investment Forum: Advancing Robotics, AI, and Infrastructure

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Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Elon Musk talked to a full audience at the Saudi Investment Forum and millions watched online. This is my transcript of his talk in the King Abdulaziz International Conference Center. My piece honors Elon’s statements for technical clarity and I hope you’ll be inspired!

AI and Robotics: Engineering the Future

When we think about Elon’s work to advance robotics and AI, many of us can see a paradigm shift in automation and intelligence, with implications for building at scale, a new economic model, and the need for a new and abundant meaning for life.

Optimus Robots: Functional Autonomy

Elon detailed the capabilities of Tesla’s Optimus bot, emphasizing practical applications. “We just showed several of our Tesla Optimus robots to His Highness and President Trump. I think they were very impressed. In fact, one of our robots did the Trump dance, which I think was pretty cool. The YMCA dance. So, yeah, very impressed robots can dance, they can walk around, they can interact,” he said.

Economic Scalability Through Robotics and a Non Dystopian Future

Elon projects a transformative economy from widespread humanoid robot adoption.

“My prediction for humanoid robots is that ultimately there will be tens of billions. I think everyone will want to have their personal robot. You can think of it as if you had your own personal C3PO or R2D2 or even better. Who wouldn’t want to have their own personal C3PO or R2D2, that would be pretty great. I also think it unlocks an immense amount of economic potential because when you think about… what is the output of an economy, it is productivity per capita times the population per capita. Once you have humanoid robots, the actual economic output potential is tremendous. It is really unlimited. Potentially we could have an economy ten times the size of the global economy where no one wants for anything. You know, sometimes in AI they talk about universal basic income, I think it is actually going to be universal high income. It is where anyone can have any goods or services that they want. A science fiction book recommendation that I recommend which I think has probably the best envision of an AI future is the Culture Books by Iain Banks. Very highly recommended for a non dystopian view of the future.”

Elon: A science fiction book recommendation that I recommend which I think has probably the best envision of an AI future is the Culture Books by Iain Banks. Very highly recommended for a non dystopian view of the future.
Elon: A science fiction book recommendation that I recommend which I think has probably the best envision of an AI future is the Culture Books by Iain Banks. Very highly recommended for a non dystopian view of the future.

I think this model will win as it is being created with with manufacturing at scale in mind. This is no fancy one off prototype.

xAI: Truth-Seeking Intelligence

Elon’s xAI plans to target fundamental questions about the universe.

“xAI is just trying to solve general purpose artificial intelligence. The goal with xAI is to have a maximally truth seeking AI, and it is important to be a maximally truth seeking AI in order to understand the universe,” he said. “The goal of xAI is to understand the universe. To understand what is out there? Where is the universe going? Where did it come from? I think maybe the biggest thing is, What questions do we NOT know to ask? Once you know the question, the answer is usually the easy part. And so, the goal of xAI is to help understand the universe and help people answer any questions along the way. That’s my philosophy. My philosophy is one of curiosity, just trying to understand the nature of reality.”

Infrastructure and Mobility: Redefining Systems

Elon’s Boring Company is totally under-represented. So, he does a great job of repping it after talking about Robotaxi!

Autonomous Vehicles: Robotaxi

Elon proposed Robotaxi for the Kindom of Saudi Arabia. “You can think of future cars as being robots on four wheels. I think it would be very exciting to have autonomous vehicles here in the Kingdom, if you are amenable,” he said.

Elon: I think it would be very exciting to have autonomous vehicles here in the Kingdom, if you are amenable. Image courtesy of Tesla, Inc.
Elon: I think it would be very exciting to have autonomous vehicles here in the Kingdom, if you are amenable. Image courtesy of Tesla, Inc.

The Boring Company: 3D Urban Solutions

Elon’s sees a future without brain numbing traffic.

“I have something that may be worth considering, it is tunnels. I have this company called The Boring Company, which sounds kinda boring, but it literally bores tunnels and actually in order to solve traffic, you really need to go 3D with roads and by using tunnels and you essentially create like a wormhole, like a warp tunnel from one part of a city to another and alleviate traffic and we’re actually already done this proof of concept in Las Vegas. There are working tunnels in Vegas that you can use where it feels like teleporting from one part of Vegas to another. My joke is like, tunnels are under-appreciated,” he said.

Cybertruck in Vegas Loop. Image Courtesy of the Boring Company
Cybertruck in Vegas Loop. Image Courtesy of the Boring Company

Starlink and AI Risk Mitigation

Elon graciously thanked the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia for their support for Starlink and addressed risks of AI. “I’d also like to thank the Kingdom for approving Starlink for maritime and aviation use. Thank you,” he said, highlighting the expansion of satellite-based connectivity for remote applications. On AI risks, Elon noted:

“There obviously are some risks, which illustrate that if you don’t do this right, you could have like a James Cameron sort of movie, Terminator. We don’t want that one, but having sort of a Star Trek future would be great. We’re out there exploring stars, discovering the nature of universe & prosperity and hopefully happiness that we can’t quite imagine yet. So, I am very excited about the future.”

In 2025, Starlink Maritime offers high-speed, low-latency internet access for boats and ships globally, with a shift towards tiered data plans instead of unlimited options, and specialized hardware designed for the marine environment.
In 2025, Starlink Maritime offers high-speed, low-latency internet access for boats and ships globally, with a shift towards tiered data plans instead of unlimited options, and specialized hardware designed for the marine environment.

My thoughts

My first thought was that Elon’s talk was too short. The brief time he had also gives us a quick look into where he’s at now. He did not discuss DOGE during his talk, but focused on his companies, the heart of the abundant future we all look forward to. In my closing comments on this article, I urge you (again) to support people having kids, and you, if you can. Underpopulation continues to be a threat to humanity, with no real fix in sight, so consider being a parent even against all odds. I have five kids and am neither “wealthy” nor poor. I’m just a regular person, like you probably are. My kids are happy, glad to enjoy life, and a blessing to everyone they meet. Despite people telling me not to have kids, or even a doctor telling me to terminate one of the pregnancies because I was “too old” to have a child at age 46, I had kids anyway. No regrets, only thanks. Bless you. Live your life to the fullest and never give up!

CARSON CITY, NEVADA - SEPTEMBER 4: Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla Motors, addresses an enthusiastic crowd at the Nevada State Capitol on September 4, 2014. Alongside Governor Sandoval, Musk revealed plans for the Tesla Gigafactory, a groundbreaking battery factory in Nevada poised to power electric vehicles and generate 6,500 jobs. (Photo by Max Whittaker/Getty Images)

Tesla Time Capsule Revisiting Elon Musk’s Visionary Talks

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Gigafactory Nevada: Elon Musk’s 2014 Triumph!

Welcome to Tesla Time Capsule: Revisiting Musk’s Visionary Talks, where we pause for a moment to remember the pivotal moments that shaped Tesla through the lens of Elon Musk’s great talks. Our journey begins in September 2014, when Elon stood outside Nevada’s state capitol in Carson City to announce the Tesla Gigafactory—a daring move that would redefine electric vehicles. With a standing ovation echoing behind him, Elon unveiled a vision for a massive, sustainable battery factory to power affordable EVs. Tesla’s mission to transform the world was palpable. This wasn’t just about building a factory; it was about betting on a future where clean energy wins. In this article, we’ll look at the context, break down Elon’s speech, and explore why the Gigafactory became a cornerstone of Tesla’s rise.

Context: Why Nevada, Why 2014?

In 2014, Tesla was no longer a scrappy startup but a strong player with the Model S gaining traction. Yet, to deliver a mass-market electric vehicle—like the upcoming Model 3—Tesla needed batteries, and lots of them. Lithium-ion battery production was dominated by Asia, and costs were a barrier to affordability. Enter the Nevada Gigafactory: a audacious plan to build the world’s largest battery plant, , and control Tesla’s destiny.

Nevada wasn’t the only contender. At the time, states like Texas, New Mexico. and Arizona offered hefty incentives, but Nevada’s agility, business-friendly environment, and Governor Brian Sandoval’s support tipped the scales. On September 4, 2014, Musk took the stage to explain why Nevada was the perfect home for this game-changing project, captivating a crowd eager for economic and environmental progress.

Elon’s Vision: A “Get-Things-Done” State

Gratitude and Nevada’s Edge Elon opened with heartfelt thanks, setting a collaborative tone:

“Thank you for coming. I’d like to start by thanking Governor Sandoval and the Nevada Legislature for their support. I think people should know that this was not about the biggest incentive package; it wasn’t just about the incentives.”

Elon explained what made Nevada stand out:

“What the people of Nevada have created is a state where you can be very agile, where you can do things quickly and get things done. It is a real ‘get-things-done’ state. That was a fundamental and important part of the decision.”

This wasn’t just flattery. Musk emphasized Nevada’s ability to move fast—crucial for a factory that had to be ready to produce battery packs by the Model 3’s launch. His words resonated with the crowd, framing Nevada as a partner in Tesla’s mission.

The Gigafactory’s Purpose: Powering Tesla’s Mission

A Factory for the Future Elon didn’t mince words about the high stakes:

“This factory is very important to the future of Tesla because, without it, we can’t produce the mass-market car. In order to produce a high-volume, affordable, compelling electric car, which has been the mission of Tesla from the beginning, the Gigafactory is vital.”

This was Tesla’s moonshot: a factory to make EVs accessible to millions, not just the elite. Elon underscored timing and efficiency:

“We had to ask where we would have high confidence that this factory would be ready on time, so that when we are ready to produce the vehicle, the factory is ready to produce the battery packs. That was truly the most important thing.”

By tying the Gigafactory to Tesla’s core mission, Elon made it clear: this wasn’t just a factory—it was the key to a sustainable future.

The Scale: Why “Gigafactory”?

Bigger Than the Rest Elon’s art deco flair for the dramatic shone when he explained the name:

“Perhaps it’s worth highlighting the sheer scale of the Gigafactory and why we even call it the Gigafactory. It will be the biggest lithium-ion battery factory in the world, surpassing the combined production capability of all lithium-ion factories in China, Korea, Japan, and elsewhere.”

This wasn’t hyperbole. The Gigafactory aimed to produce more batteries than the entire global output of 2013, a staggering ambition that left the crowd buzzing. Musk’s vision wasn’t just about meeting demand—it was about rewriting the rules of battery production.

CARSON CITY, NEVADA - SEPTEMBER 4: Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla Motors, addresses an enthusiastic crowd at the Nevada State Capitol on September 4, 2014. Alongside Governor Sandoval, Musk revealed plans for the Tesla Gigafactory, a groundbreaking battery factory in Nevada poised to power electric vehicles and generate 6,500 jobs. (Photo by Max Whittaker/Getty Images)
CARSON CITY, NEVADA – SEPTEMBER 4: Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla Motors, addresses an enthusiastic crowd at the Nevada State Capitol on September 4, 2014. Alongside Governor Sandoval, Musk revealed plans for the Tesla Gigafactory, a groundbreaking battery factory in Nevada poised to power electric vehicles and generate 6,500 jobs. (Photo by Max Whittaker/Getty Images)

A Factory with Flair: Design and Sustainability

Art Deco Diamond in the Desert Elon revealed a surprising detail: the Gigafactory would be as beautiful as it was functional:

“We are taking care to ensure that it looks good and fits in with its surroundings. The factory will be shaped like a diamond. To fit better into the environment, we shaped it like a diamond, and it is aligned to true north so that we can map out where the equipment will be by GPS.”

The diamond shape wasn’t just aesthetic—it minimized environmental disruption. Elon’s nod to “romantic” practicality charmed the audience:

“I think it sounds kind of romantic to say it’s shaped like a diamond and aligned to true north, but there are practical reasons for it as well.”

CARSON CITY, NEVADA – SEPTEMBER 4: Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla Motors, addresses an enthusiastic crowd at the Nevada State Capitol on September 4, 2014. Alongside Governor Sandoval, Musk revealed plans for the Tesla Gigafactory, a groundbreaking battery factory in Nevada poised to power electric vehicles and generate 6,500 jobs. (Photo by Max Whittaker/Getty Images)

Self-Sustaining Power

Sustainability was non-negotiable:

“This factory will produce its own energy through a combination of geothermal, solar, and wind power. It will generate all the energy it needs, making it a self-contained factory.”

This commitment to zero-carbon energy underscored Tesla’s ethos, earning cheers from an environmentally conscious crowd.

An Invitation to Witness History

Open to the Public Elon closed with a promise:

“We’re going to ensure that people can visit it, look at it, and check it out because it will be worth seeing.”

This wasn’t just a factory—it was a symbol of progress, open for the world to see. The crowd’s standing ovation reflected their excitement and he kept his word, with close friend John Stringer visiting the factory just a week ago!

Postscript: The Gigafactory’s Lasting Impact

The 2014 Gigafactory announcement was more than a speech—it was a turning point. By 2025, Gigafactory Nevada has become a powerhouse, producing batteries for millions of Tesla vehicles and energy storage systems like Powerwall. It sparked economic growth in Nevada, creating thousands of jobs and proving Musk’s bet was right. This talk showcased Elon at his best: visionary, practical and brief, and unrelentingly ambitious. As we look back, it’s clear the Gigafactory wasn’t just about batteries—it was about building a future where clean energy is the norm. What part of your life has Tesla made better? Feel free to share your thoughts with others on X, I often discuss these historical pieces with my kids/family over dinner, etc. I’ll be writing more Tesla Time Capsule stories in the future.

More from Tesla Time Capsule

Explore other moments in Tesla’s history through Elon Musk’s visionary talks:

  • The Gigafactory Gamble: Elon Musk’s 2014 Nevada Triumph (You are here)
  • Coming Soon: Tesla’s Next Milestone (Stay tuned for my next historical Elon talk about Tesla!)
Elon says, “Communications is essential, it is actually very important to have space-based communications that are or that cannot be intercepted, which is Starlink. It is what Starlink offers"

Elon Musk’s 2024 West Point Talk Part 2: Drones, AI, and the Future

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This is the second part of my series on Elon Musk’s August 16, 2024, West Point talk, released February 6, 2025.

Geared towards students, the discussion with Brigadier General Shane Reeves explored national defense and technology.

In Part 1, Elon emphasized drone warfare, noting U.S. technological strength but low production rates, stating,

“Well I think we probably need to invest in drones, the United States is strong in terms of technology of the items, but, the production rate is low, so, it is a small number of units, relatively speaking, but I think that basically there is a production rate issue with the rate, like if you say how fast can you make drones, imagine there is a Drone conflict. The outcome of that Drone conflict will be based on: How many drones does each side have in that particular skirmish times the kill ratio… so let’s say that the United States would have a set of drones that have a high kill ratio, but then, the other side has far more drones. If you have got a 2 to 1 kill ratio, and the other side has four times as many drones, you are still going to lose.”

Ukrainian Drone Production and Aging

Reeves explained that a recent report quoted Zelensky saying Ukraine will produce 1 million drones by 2025. He then pivoted to ask Elon if he had solved aging.

Elon stated that he had not solved aging, and then added, “I wonder if we should solve aging?” He added, “How long do you want Putin and Kim Jong-un to live?”

Starlink’s Role in Warfare

Reeves shifted to the importance of communications in warfare, prompting Elon to discuss Starlink: “Communications is essential, it is actually very important to have space-based communications that are or that cannot be intercepted, which is Starlink. It is what Starlink offers. Starlink is the backbone of the Ukrainian military communication system because it can’t be blocked by the Russians. It is the only thing that cannot be blocked. So, on the front lines, all of the fiber connections are cut, all the cell towers are blown up, all of the geostationary satellite links are jammed. The only thing that isn’t jammed is Starlink, so it is the only thing. And then, GPS is also jammed. GPS signal is very faint and Starlink can offer location capability as well so it is a strategic advantage that is very significant. And, when you try to communicate with drones, the drones need to like basically, they need to know where they are, and they need to receive instructions. So if you don’t have communications and positioning, then the drones don’t work. So that’s quite important. That is essential.”

Future of AI and Drones

Reeves asked if there will still need to be communication between people and drones. Elon said, “There’s a difference between right now, versus where things will be in 10 years.” Sighing, Elon says he’s looking at the future with some trepidation. He says he has to have some deliberate suspension of disbelief to sleep sometimes. He thinks we’re headed into a pretty wild future. Elon is a naturally optimistic person, but “AI is going to be so good, including localized AI, but at the current rates, you’ll have something that is sort of Grok-level AI and it can probably be run on a drone and so, you could literally say, this is the equipment that the drone needs to destroy, and then it will go into that thing, and it will recognize what equipment needs to be destroyed, and will take it out.”

Elon says, “Communications is essential, it is actually very important to have space-based communications that are or that cannot be intercepted, which is Starlink. It is what Starlink offers"
Elon says, “Communications is essential, it is actually very important to have space-based communications that are or that cannot be intercepted, which is Starlink. It is what Starlink offers”

AI Surpassing Human Control

Reeves asks Elon if he thinks that AI will quickly surpass the human’s ability to control. Elon answers,

“Yes, I mean, <very long pause> I’d like to say no, but the answer is yes.”

Reeves asks how long before the AI surpasses the ability for the human to influence how it’s working?

Elon explained that he does think humans will be able to influence how it’s working for a long time, “This is an esoteric subject, that really goes into pretty wild speculation, to some degree. I think that the AI will want humans as a source of Will. So, if you think of how the human mind works, there is the limbic system, and the cortex, you have sort of the base instincts, and sort of the thinking, and the planning part of your brain, but you also have a tertiary layer, which is all of the electronics that you use, your phones, your computers, applications, so you already have three layers of intelligence, but all of those, including the cortex and the machine intelligence, which is your sort of cybernetic third layer, is working to try to make the limbic system happy. Because the limbic system is a source of Will so, it might be that the AI just wants to make the humans happy.”

Elon explains, "AI may view humans as a source of will, like the limbic system driving instincts. With the cortex and electronics as intelligence layers, AI might aim to make humans happy."

Neuralink and AI Mitigation

Continuing on AI, Elon introduced Neuralink: “And part of what Neuralink is trying to do, is to improve the communication bandwidth between the cortex and the digital tertiary layer because the output bandwidth of a human is less than one bit per second per day and there are 86,400 seconds in one day and you don’t output 86,400 tokens you know it’s like, the number of words that I can say in those forums, if you’re just looking at it from an information theory standpoint, how much information am I able to convey? Not that much. Because I can only say a few number of words, and in order to convey an idea, I have to take a concept in my head, and then I have to compress it down, into a small number of words, try to aspirational model, how you would decompress those words into concepts that are in your own mind, that’s communication. So your brain is doing a lot of compression and decompression, and then has a very small output bandwidth. Neuralink can increase that bandwidth by several orders of magnitude, and also, you don’t have to spend as much time compressing thoughts into a small number of words, you can do conceptual telepathy. That is the idea behind Neuralink. It is intended to be a mitigation against AI existential risk.”

AI Alignment and Humanity

Reeves asked about the concept of AI alignment, prompting Elon to explain: “It’s asking the question, is the AI going to do things that make civilization better? Make people happy? Or will it be contrary to humanity? Will it foster humanity? Or not? Will it be against humanity? So obviously, we want an AI that will foster humanity and I think in developing an AI to foster humanity—because I’ve thought about AI safety for a long time—I think I’ve had probably about 1000 hours of discussion about this and my ultimate conclusion is that the best course for AI safety is to have an AI that is maximally truth-seeking and also curious. And if you have both of those things, I think it will naturally foster humanity because it will want to see how humanity develops. Want to see it because humanity is more interesting than not humanity. You know, I like Mars. I’m a big fan of Mars. And I think we should become a multi-planetary civilization. That’s very important. The purpose of SpaceX is to make life multi-planetary. That’s the reason I created the company, and that’s the reason we have the Starship development in South Texas. The rocket is far too big for just satellites. It’s intended to establish life on Mars not just to send astronauts there briefly, but to build a city on Mars. A city that is ultimately self-sustaining so, but getting back to AI, if you have a truth-seeking AI, that is maximally curious, my neural net, my biological neural net says that that is going to be the safest outcome. People say, why do you like Mars, Mars is not as interesting as Earth, because there’s no human civilization there. Or, thought of another way, if you want to render Mars, rendering Mars is pretty easy as it’s basically red rocks, kind of like some parts of Arizona you know there’s not a lot of people. It’s just very easy to render. But, rendering human civilization is much harder, much more complex, much more interesting so I think a curious and truth-seeking AI would want to foster humanity and want to see where it goes.”

Trusting AI and the End of Fighter Pilots

Reeves asked an interesting question, drawing on a comparison to a movie that he and Elon were both familiar with, Top Gun with Tom Cruise. His question to Elon was, “How do we build trust between the human and the machine, as there are many humans who don’t want to use the technology because they don’t trust it?”

Elon: “Well, I think we shouldn’t just automatically trust these things. I think you want to test it out, and do a lot of testing and see how it actually works and a conflict at a small scale, and then scale it up if it’s effective, but, I have to say, like I’m not sure for example, like I have to say,… Well, fortunately, this is not an Air Force gathering, but I’m not sure there’s a lot of room and opportunity for fighter pilots because I think if you’ve got a drone swarm coming at you, then the pilot is a liability in the fighter plane, to be honest. If you compare a drone versus a fighter plane, how easy is it to make a drone? It’s at least 10, maybe 100 times easier to make the drone, and you can afford to sacrifice the drones whereas, with the pilots, you don’t want to sacrifice the pilots, so my guess is actually that the age of human-piloted fighter aircraft is coming to an end.”

A primarily young audience of students gather to intently listen to Elon Musk at West Point. Elon spoke at on August 16, 2024, during a fireside chat with Brigadier General Shane Reeves, as part of the U.S. Military Academy’s convocation.
A primarily young audience of students gather to intently listen to Elon Musk at West Point. Elon spoke at on August 16, 2024, during a fireside chat with Brigadier General Shane Reeves, as part of the U.S. Military Academy’s convocation.

I am excited to share Part 3 of this talk with you soon!

My thoughts

Elon does not get credit for how much help he’s giving Ukraine. Without Starlink, Ukraine would have no communications for defense. Sadly, we’ve not heard Zelensky thank him for this in the last few years. Instead, Elon is villainized constantly.

Speaking to the young and excited audience at West Point, Elon showed his deep love for humanity when he urged caution: don’t blindly trust AI, test it carefully first. Drones, far easier to build than fighter planes, can be sacrificed—unlike precious pilots. He believes human-piloted fighters are fading, to protect lives.

Interested in other talks by Elon? I publish many of them.

Elon Musk’s 2024 West Point Talk Part 1`

Elon Musk Talk Part 1 at Lancaster Town Hall

Elon Musk Part 2 at Lancaster Town Hall

Highlights from Elon Musk’s Telephone Town Hall

Gail Alfar, Image Credit Apple Lamps on X
Gail Alfar, dedicated Tesla advocate and writer since 2020, continues to champion the resilience and innovation of Tesla owners.
Elon Musk’s 2024 West Point Talk

Elon Musk’s 2024 West Point Talk: My Transcript of Insights on the Future of Technology in Warfare (Part 1)

Gail Alfar1 Comment

This is the first of a multi part series, that allows you to closely study Elon’s words spoken at West Point on August 16, 2024. The full video was released on February 6, 2025. If you love history of civilizations, and like to study battles and war, you’ll find value in Elon’s insight. I know I did.

Featuring Elon Musk interviewed by Shane Reeves

Elon Musk at West Point: AI and Drones Will Define Future Warfare

How do you see warfare transforming in the future? Elon replied with, “the biggest factor I think by far is AI and drones. The current war in Ukraine is very much a drone war already – sort of a contest between Russia and trying to see who can deploy the most number of drones. Now if there’s a major power war, it’s very much going to be a drone war. It’s gonna be drones and AI and … I do worry about the existential risk of AI, which is that if you employ AI and drones, do you Eventually go down this path where you get to terminator? We should try to avoid that! We should minimize the terminator risk. But essentially when you’re making military drones, you are making terminators. And I think you will be somewhat forced into giving the Drone localized AI. Because if the AI is far away, it can’t control as well as localized AI.”

Elon explained that localized AI means it’s an autonomous scaling machine which will be completely autonomous if you give it the OK in a particular arena and then it just goes.

Will our military have the same types of concerns and limitations? To this question Elon replied, “it depends on how much existential risk there is in these wars, if it’s a regional war, I think it will be more tempered, if it goes beyond regional war, then all bets are off. And then you start deploying things that you really would not want to deploy. So hopefully, that does not happen.”

In response to a comment by Reeves, that machines are not just disrupting warfare today they are commonplace, Elon said “drones are going to be overwhelmingly what matters for any powers that have significant technology. Elon added, my personal belief is like, it’ll actually be I think probably too dangerous to have humans at the front. It’s drones at the front. Drones don’t miss.”


Reeves asked, or commented, because of the lethality then, it’s too dangerous to have humans at the front? Elon responded “Yes, I mean, if you have seen some of the computer-controlled sniper rifles, they just don’t miss. So you are finding a machine that is going to aim with micron level accuracy, and it never gets tired.”


Reeves asked Elon how he thinks the United States should be leveraging technology to further our national defense?


Elon paused, and replied, “Well I think we probably need to invest in drones, the United States is strong in terms of technology of the items, but, the production rate is low, so, it is a small number of units, relatively speaking, but I think that basically there is a production rate issue with the rate, like if you say how fast can you make drones, imagine there is a Drone conflict. The outcome of that Drone conflict will be based on: How many drones does each side have in that particular skirmish times the kill ratio… so let’s say that the United States would have a set of drones that have a high kill ratio, but then, the other side has far more drones. If you have got a 2 to 1 kill ratio, and the other side has four times as many drones, you are still going to lose.”


Reeves asked Elon if he thinks that our industrial base can scale to make the number of drones that Elon is talking about?


Elon replied, “I think that’s going to be the biggest challenge. It can scale. But it is not currently scaling.” Reeves asked why. Elon thought about the current state of Drone procurement in the U.S.A, and also mentioned,

“I read a lot of military history and the thing that I go to sleep with is usually an audiobook on military history of one kind or another so I find the subject very interesting and one of the things that tends to happen is that countries are geared up pretty much enough to fight the last war, but not the next war. And it’s hard to change. If you look at the uniforms at the start of World War I and the tactics they use at the start of World War I, they were not significantly different from the Napoleonic era. You know, when the French were marching into war with brightly colored uniforms. It looks great. But that’s not what you want to be, you know when someone is pointing a gun at you you don’t want a great looking uniform you want a uniform that blends in so, there is a tendency to be gearing up to fight the last war in the U.S. So that would be kind of the Cold War I guess. So, it usually takes some kind of shock factor to adjust. I would recommend adjusting now.”

Elon: “And you are seeing some startups like Anduril and a few others that have a different mindset, but it’s really going to be, can you make a lot of drones? And what’s the kill ratio? That’s what it comes down to.”

Anduril Industries, founded in 2017 in Costa Mesa, California, is a defense tech company revolutionizing military capabilities with AI-driven solutions. Named after a mythical sword, Anduril builds autonomous drones (like Ghost), surveillance systems (Sentry), and software (Lattice) to enhance national security. Unlike traditional defense giants, it operates like a nimble tech startup, prioritizing speed and innovation. With $2.3 billion in funding by 2024, Anduril serves the U.S. Department of Defense and allies, competing with legacy contractors by delivering cost-effective, scalable tech for modern warfare, including border security and counter-drone operations.

This is Part 1, of Elon’s talk, and it gets better. You can follow my account, turn on your notifications, for Part 2. Or check back periodically. 

"I see a path. I'm not saying it's an easy path but I see a path of Tesla being the most valuable company in the world by far." - Elon Musk

Tesla’s Path Forward: Q4 2024 and FY 2024 Earnings Call (Elon’s Conversation)

Gail Alfar2 Comments

Austin, Texas.

“I see a path. I’m not saying it’s an easy path but I see a path of Tesla being the most valuable company in the world by far.” – Elon Musk

In this article we’ll look at how Tesla’s value is immense, as what Tesla is building will improve efficiency in all areas of human life, and do it at scale, making it affordable. Elon Musk outlined much of this is in this Shareholder meeting, so although he did not make mention of Master Plan 3, this was a big progress report on Master Plan 3.

Elon’s conversation focused on manufacturing at scale, AI, and robotics. Note: This is the January 29, 2025, Tesla Annual Shareholder Earnings Call.

Elon is More that Doubling Investments in Tesla

“Doubling is not even enough. We made many critical investments in 2024 in manufacturing, AI and robotics that will bear immense fruit in the future.” – Elon Musk

When discussing Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology, Elon emphasized its market impact, saying, “I think the interest level from other manufacturers to license FSD will be extremely high once it is obvious that unless you have FSD, you’re dead.”

The Misconception of Easy Production vs. the Reality

Elon: “Yeah, prototypes are trivial basically. Prototypes are easy, production is there for many years. The problem is there’s like those who have never been involved in production or manufacturing somehow think that may — once you come up with some eureka design, that you magically can make 1 million units a year, and this is totally false. There needs to be some Hollywood story or where they show actually the problem is manufacturing.”

Hollywood Does Not Make Movies Like This, But They Should

Elon: “I’ve never even heard of one (Hollywood story that shows how to win at manufacturing). It just doesn’t fit the narrative. The Hollywood thing is like some lone inventor in a garage goes EUREKA! And suddenly, it files a patent, and suddenly, there’s millions of units. And like I’m listening to the guys, we’re missing really 99% of the story. One percent is — a product is 1% inspiration, 99% perspiration. Hollywood shows you the 1% inspiration and minus — but forgets about the 99% perspiration of actually figuring out how to make that initial prototype manufacturable and then manufacture at high volume such as reliable, low cost, consistent, and doesn’t break down all the time and that is 100 times more difficult at least than the prototype.”

Austin, Texas Will Experience Unsupervised Full Self-Driving as a Paid Service in June

“In fact, it could drive you. It’s a self-driving wolf.” – Elon Musk

Elon’s timeline was a surprise for many, as he plans to initially launch unsupervised FSD in Austin in June. For me personally, it makes sense. I live in Austin, use FSD everyday, it works astonishingly well!

“We’re going to be launching unsupervised full self-driving as a paid service in Austin in June.” – Elon Musk

Elon: “And I am like — setting up for what I think will be an epic 2026 and a ridiculous ’27 and ’28, ridiculously good. That is my prediction. As you know, very few people understand the value of self-driving and our ability to monetize the fleet. Some of these things I’ve said for quite a long time, and I know people have said, Well, Elon, the boy who cried like a wolf like several times. But I’m telling you, there’s a damn wolf this time and you can drive it. In fact, it could drive you. It’s a self-driving wolf.

For a lot of people, like their experience of Tesla Autonomy is like if it’s even a year old, if it’s even two years old, it’s like meeting someone when they’re like a toddler and thinking that they’re going to be a toddler forever. But obviously not going to be a toddler forever. They grow up. But if their last experience was like, Oh, FSD was a toddler. It’s like, well, it’s grown up now. Have you seen it? It’s like walks and talks. And that’s really what we’ve got.

And it’s difficult for people to understand this because human intuition is linear as opposed to what we’re seeing is exponential progress. So, that’s why my No. 1 recommendation for anyone who doubts is simply try it. Have you tried it? When’s the last time you tried it? And the only people who are skeptical, the only people who are skeptical are those who have not tried it.”

When addressing a question about discussions with other auto companies regarding the licensing of Tesla's FSD, Elon explained there is interest.

When addressing a question about discussions with other auto companies regarding the licensing of Tesla’s FSD, Elon explained there is interest.

Interest in Tesla’s Autonomous Tech

Elon: “Yeah. What we’re seeing is at this point, significant interest from a number of major car companies about licensing Tesla full self-driving technology.”

Analyzing Tesla’s Hardware

Elon: “What we’ve generally said is the best way to know what to do is take one of our cars apart. And then you can see where the placement of the cameras are, what the thermal needs are of the Tesla AI inference computer.”

Optimus Development Timeline

  • Elon: “With regard to Optimus, obviously, I’m making these revenue predictions that sound absolutely insane, I realize that. But they are — I think they will prove to be accurate. Now with Optimus, there’s a lot of uncertainty on the exact timing because it’s not like a train arriving at the station for Optimus. We are designing the train at the station and in real time while also building the tracks.”

Production Goals for Optimus:

  • Elon: “The normal internal plan calls for roughly 10,000 Optimus robots to be built this year. Will we succeed in building 10,000 exactly by the end of December this year? Probably not, but will we succeed in making several thousand? Yes, I think we will. Will those several thousand Optimus robots be doing useful things by the end of the year? Yes, I’m confident they will do useful things.”

Feedback Loop for Optimus Development

Elon: “Those Optimus in use at the Tesla factories for production design 1 will inform how we will change for production design 2, which we expect to launch next year.”

The Immense Scaling of Optimus

Elon: “And our goal is to ramp up Optimus production faster than maybe anything has ever been ramped, meaning like aspirationally in order of magnitude, ramp per year. Now if we aspire to an order of magnitude ramp per year, perhaps, we only end up with a half order of magnitude per year. But that’s the kind of growth that we’re talking about. It doesn’t take very many years before we’re making 100 million of these things a year if you go up by let’s say, a factor by 5x per year.”

How Tesla Solved Challenges in Developing Optimus

Elon: “But we do need to be — this is an entirely new supply chain, it’s entirely new technology. There’s nothing off the shelf to use. We tried desperately with Optimus to use any existing motors or any actuators, sensors. Nothing worked for a humanoid robot at any price.”

Custom Design for Optimus

Elon: “We had to design everything from physics-first principles to work for a humanoid robot and with the most sophisticated hand that has ever been made before by far. Optimus will be also able to play the piano and be able to thread a needle. I mean, this is the level of precision no one has been able to achieve. And so, it’s really something special.”

Future Value of Optimus to Tesla

Elon: “So, yes. And my prediction, long term, is that Optimus will be overwhelmingly the value of the company.”

Additional Statements on Optimus

Elon: “Optimus is not design-locked. So, let’s say like we’re designing the train as it’s going to — we’re redesigning the train as it’s going down the tracks while redesigning the tracks and the train stations.”

Vision for Optimus

  • Elon: “I’d like it to be the beginning of next year but maybe it’s more like the middle of next year,” (referring to the launch of an enhanced version of Optimus)
  • Elon: “The current line that we’re designing is for roughly 1,000 units a month of Optimus robots. The next line would be for 10,000 units a month. The line after that would be for 100,000 units a month.”
  • Elon: “I think probably with Version 2, it is a very rough guess because there’s so much uncertainty here, very rough guess that we start delivering Optimus robots to companies that are outside of Tesla in maybe the second half of next year, something like that.”
  • Elon: “But like I said, this is such an exponential ramp that it will go from no one’s receiving humanoid robots to these things like coming out like crazy. We can’t build enough. We’re always going to be in the — we can’t build enough situation. Demand will not be a problem even at a high price.”
  • Elon: “And then I said like, once we start — once we’re at a steady state of above 1 million units a year, I think the production — I’m confident at 1 million units a year, that the production cost of Optimus will be less than $20,000.”
  • Elon: “If you compare the complexity of Optimus to the complexity of a car, so just the total mass and complexity of Optimus is much less than a car. So, I would expect that at similar volumes to say the Model Y, which is over 1 million units a year, that you’d see Optimus be, I don’t know, half the cost or something like that.”
  • Elon: “What the price of Optimus is a different matter. The price of Optimus will be set by the market demand.”
Utility of Autonomous Cars

Utility of Autonomous Cars

“Once that car is autonomous, my rough estimate is that it is in use for at least a third of the hours per week, so call it, 50, maybe 55 hours of the week.” – Elon Musk

Current Utilization of Passenger Cars

Elon: “So, a car goes — a passenger car typically has only about 10 hours of utility per week out of 168, a very small percentage.”

Projected Increase in Car Utility with Autonomy

Elon: “Once that car is autonomous, my rough estimate is that it is in use for at least a third of the hours per week, so call it, 50, maybe 55 hours of the week. And it can be used for both cargo delivery and people delivery. So, even, let’s say, people are asleep but you can deliver packages in the middle of the night or resupply restaurants or whatever the case may be, whatever people need at all hours of the day or night.”

Economic Impact of Autonomous Vehicles

Elon: “That same asset, the thing that — these things that already exist with no incremental cost change, just a software update, now have five times or more the utility than they currently have. I think this will be the largest asset value increase in human history. Maybe there’s something bigger but I just don’t know what it is. And so, people who would look in the rearview mirror are looking for past precedent, except I don’t think there is one.”

Everyone Should Try Autonomous Driving

Elon: “So, look, the reality of autonomy is upon us. And I repeat my advice, try driving the car or let it drive you. So, now it works very well in the U.S., but of course, it will, over time, work just as well everywhere else.”

Tesla’s Growth Plans: Batteries

Elon: “Yes, so we’re working hard to grow our annual volumes. Our current constraint is battery packs this year but we’re working on addressing that constraint. And I think we will make progress in addressing that constraint. And then things are really going to go ballistic next year and really ballistic in ’27 and ’28.”

Advancement in Full-Self-Driving (FSD) Technology

Elon: “So, a bit more on full-self-driving. Our Q4 vehicle safety report shows continued year-over-year improvement in safety for vehicles. So, the safety numbers, if somebody has supervised full self-driving turned on or not, the safety differences are gigantic. And people have seen the immense improvement with Version 13, and with incremental versions in Version 13 and 14 is going to be yet another step beyond that, that is very significant. We launched the Cortex training cluster at Gigafactory Austin, which was a significant contributor to FSD advancement.”

Training Infrastructure for AI/Optimus Development

Elon: “And we continue to invest in training infrastructure out of Texas headquarters. So, the training needs for Optimus humanoid robot, are probably at least ultimately 10x of what is needed for the car, at least to get to the full range of useful role. You can say like how many different roles are there for a humanoid robot versus a car? A humanoid robot has probably 1,000 times more uses and more complex things than in a car. That doesn’t mean the training scales by 1,000 but it’s probably at 10x.”

Economic Potential of Optimus Robots

Elon: “Now you can do this progressively, so it doesn’t mean like Tesla’s going to spend like $500 billion in training computer because we will obviously train Optimus to do enough tasks to match the output of robots. And obviously, the cost of training is dropping dramatically with time. But it’s one of those things where I think long-term, Optimus has the potential to be north of $10 trillion in revenue, like it’s really bananas. So, that you can obviously afford a lot of training compute in that situation.”

Investment vs. Revenue in AI Training

Elon: “In fact, even $500 billion training compute in that situation will be quite a good deal. Yes, the future is going to be incredibly different from the past, that’s for sure. We live at this unbelievable inflection point in human history.”

Proof of Concept for Unsupervised FSD

Elon: “So, yes, so the proof is in the pudding. So, we’re going to be launching unsupervised full self-driving as a paid service in Austin in June. So, I talked to the team. We feel confident in being able to do an initial launch of unsupervised, no one in the car, full self-driving in Austin in June. We already have Teslas operating autonomously unsupervised full self-driving at our factory in Fremont, and we’ll soon be doing that at our factory in Texas.”

Operational Details of Autonomous Vehicles at Factories

Elon: “So, thousands of cars every day are driving with no one in them at our Fremont factory in California, that we’ll soon be doing that in Austin and then elsewhere in the world, the rest of our factories, which is pretty cool. And the cars aren’t just driving to exactly the same spot because, obviously, they want to collide at the same spot. The cars are actually programmed with where — with what lane they need to park into to be picked up for delivery. So, the drive from the factory end of line to their destination parking spot and to be picked up for delivery to customers and then doing this reliably every day, thousands of times a day.”

Timeline for Unsupervised FSD in Public

Elon: “It’s pretty cool. Like I said, these Teslas will be in the wild with no one in them in June in Austin. So, what I’m saying is this is not some far-off mythical situation. It’s literally five, six months away, five months away kind of thing.

Approach to Safety and Expansion

Elon: “And while we’re stepping — putting our toe in the water gently at first just to make sure everything is cool, our solution, our sort of solution is a generalized AI solution. It does not require high precision maps of locality. So, we just want to be cautious. It’s not that it doesn’t work beyond Austin. In fact, it does. We just want to put our toe in the water, make sure everything is OK, then put a few more toes in the water, then put a foot in the water with safety of the general public as and those in the car as our top priority.”

Energy Storage as a Critical Asset

Elon: “Regarding energy, energy storage is a big deal and will become — really super important, will become incredibly important in the future. And it is something that enables far greater energy output to the grid than is currently possible because the grids are — the vast majority of the grid has no energy storage capability.”

Impact of Energy Storage on Grid Efficiency

Elon: “So, they have to design the power plants for very high peaks and assuming that there’s no energy storage. Once you have grid energy storage and home-based energy storage, the actual total energy output per year of the grid is dramatically greater than people think. Maybe it’s at least double. This will drive the demand of stationary battery packs and especially the grid-scale ones to and saying basically as much demand as we can possibly make.”

Tesla’s Expansion of Big Battery Production: Shanghai and Another 3rd Factory

Elon: “So, we have our second factory, which is in Shanghai, that’s starting operation, and we’re building a third factory. So, we’re trying to ramp output of the stationary battery storage as quickly as possible.”

Balancing Battery Demand Between Sectors

Elon: “Now there is a challenge here where we have to be careful — that were not robbing from 1 pocket to take to another pocket because for a given gigawatt hours per year of the cell output, does it go into stationary applications or mobile applications? It can’t go both into both so we have to make that trade-off, yes. But overall, the demand for total gigawatt hours of batteries, whether mobile or stationary, that will grow in a very, very big way over time.

For context, Tesla navigates between:

  • Stationary Applications: These include batteries for energy storage solutions that support homes, businesses, and the grid, particularly vital for managing renewable energy sources like solar and wind, which produce energy intermittently.
  • Mobile Applications: Here, the focus is on electric vehicles, where batteries are essential for vehicle operation, directly impacting Tesla’s automotive business.

Elon metaphorically described the situation as “robbing from one pocket to take to another,” emphasizing the need for strategy to ensure neither sector suffers from resource scarcity. The decision on where to allocate batteries involves complex trade-offs based on current market demand, potential profitability, and strategic long-term goals.

Significance of 2025 in Tesla’s Timeline

Speaking of the year 2025, Elon said “In fact, I think it probably will be viewed ’25 as maybe the most important year in Tesla’s history.

Tesla’s Dominance in Real-World AI

Elon: “There is no company in the world that is as good in real-world AI as Tesla. I don’t even know who’s in second place. Like you say, like, who’s in the second place for real-world AI? I would need a very big telescope to see them. That’s how far behind they are.”

Tesla’s Q4 and Full Year Earnings Calls from 2021, 2022, 2023 by Gail Alfar

Future is Bright for Humanity: Tesla Q4 2023 Earnings Call

Tesla Q4 and FY2022 Earnings Call and Strength in Uncertain Times (Elon Musk’s talk)

Tesla Q4 2021 Earnings Call and the Long Road Ahead

My passion is Tesla. This is my fourth year writing about Tesla. No stopping in sight!

Gail Alfar, Image Credit Apple Lamps on X

Gail Alfar, Image Credit Apple Lamps on X

Future is Bright for Humanity: Tesla Q4 2023 Earnings Call

Gail Alfar1 Comment

What you will not hear from the mainstream media

The first post I wrote covering Tesla was in January 2022. I wrote about Tesla’s Q4 2021 earnings call. On that day I was locked out of my office (my laptop was locked inside) and there was a Pepsi just sitting there for me to enjoy. I remember calling my friend Johnna Crider that day and we talked until someone opened the doors. I still have that Pepsi bottle to remind me that “there is a lot of work to do, don’t get locked out!” I’ve been writing ever since about one of the best companies in the world: Tesla. 

Tesla Q4 Earnings Call

Cybertruck owners love the feel and utility of their vehicles. Tesla built a truck with safety, speed, luxury, utility and performance in mind. You might wonder about deliveries. Are people taking delivery who made reservations years ago? The answer is yes, a Tesla executive explained that Cybertruck’s reservation-to-order conversion rate has been very promising, and if the trend continues, “it is expected that all 2024 builds will be sold out soon. New orders are also anticipated after the launch. The order numbers are increasing, and the team is working hard to ramp up production to fulfill the demand and decrease wait times.”

“Obviously,” Elon Musk said, “we could dramatically raise the price, but that doesn’t feel right to us to (price) gouge people for early delivery.” Elon estimates Tesla will produce around a quarter million Cybertrucks per year in North America, possibly more. 

2024 is the year of the Cybertruck, and it is a head-turner

Image Courtesy Tesla, Inc.

“You know, there’s some very good trucks on the road, but if you were to switch out the brand name, you wouldn’t hardly know which company made them. But you definitely would know the Cybertruck. That’s our best product ever.” – Elon Musk

Mini-Timeline: October 7, 2021: Elon Musk officially announces that the Tesla HQ will be located in Austin, Texas.

January 26, 2022: Full-year 2021 financial results reveal that making electric cars is more profitable than making combustion engine cars.

January 25, 2023: Uncertain times did not slow down Tesla. Giga Berlin and Giga Texas joined Giga Shanghai in the production of Model Y, and within months the vehicle became a top seller! 

January 25, 2024: Cybertrucks hit the roads in the USA. Model Y surpassed expectations and became the global best-selling car. Gasoline cars fell behind for the first time.

Tesla Energy

Exciting News: Tesla announced that moving forward they will start reporting Tesla Energy volumes in their production and delivery releases. This is good because Tesla Energy has demand signals globally for their Megapack. Growth is almost guaranteed to be strong and consistent through 2024 and 2025. Tesla expressed gratitude to their partners throughout the world for their trust in the Megapack team and gave personal thanks to the engineering and production teams for their outstanding 2023 performance. The Lathrop facility will double its capacity from 20 to 40-gigawatt hours by the end of the year with the operation of a second final assembly line. 

Growth for big battery production has been much faster than the car business. Elon emphasized, “The energy storage business delivered nearly 15-gigawatt hours of batteries in 2023, compared to 6.5 gigawatt hours the year before. Tremendous year-over-year growth, triple digits. I think we’ll continue to see very strong growth in storage as predicted.”

Image Courtesy Tesla, Inc.

Many people are pleased that Elon Musk speaks often about Tesla’s progress and plans. This transparency is rare for big companies. Enjoy his opening remarks.

“The Tesla team did an incredible job in 2023. We achieved a record production and deliveries of over 1.8 million vehicles, in line with our official guidance. And in Q4, we’re producing vehicles at an annualized run rate of almost 2 million cars a year.

This was a phenomenal achievement. Looking at just the Fremont Factory alone, we made 560,000 cars. This is a record. In fact, it’s the highest-output automotive plant in North America.

And people are often surprised that the highest-output car factory in North America is in the San Francisco Bay area. It’s a little counterintuitive, perhaps. And it’s had an incredibly positive impact on that entire area. What would have been a rundown strip mall is the highest-productivity car plant in the Americas.

Think about that. It was derelict when we got it, and now, it’s the most productive plant in this entire part of the world, and it’s enriched the community in so many different ways. It’s really a gem. I’m super proud of the people that work there.

Model Y became the best-selling vehicle globally as predicted, and the best-selling vehicle of any kind, not just electric vehicles, with over 1.2 million units delivered. There’s a lot to look forward to in 2024. Tesla is currently between two major growth waves. We’re focused on making sure that our next growth wave driven by next-gen vehicle, energy storage, full self-driving, and other projects is executed as well as possible.

To close this blog post, I’d like to share with you my imaginary futuristic scenario, inspired by listening to the live stream.

In the year 2032, the world has entered an era of sustainable living and tech advancement, thanks to the visionary leadership of Tesla, Elon Musk, and its pioneering innovations. The family of the future is happier and more connected than ever before, as they enjoy the fruits of an earth transformed by clean energy and intelligent automation.

Thomas and Victoria arrive home in their sleek, self-driving Cybertruck, accompanied by four of their children. The family’s home is a testament to the power of technology, with a clean and inviting atmosphere that has been meticulously maintained by their trusty Tesla Optimus bot.

As the sun sets on the horizon, Victoria opens the smart curtains, revealing a breathtaking view of the city skyline. The temperature is a comfortable 65°, and the family decides to enjoy their dinner on the patio by the pool. The pool is heated by solar energy, a resource that powers the entire city through a network of Tesla Megapacks strategically placed on the outskirts. These big batteries store energy when the sun is not shining and the wind is not blowing, ensuring a constant supply of electricity.

After a delicious meal, the family of eight disperses to pursue their passions. The children immerse themselves in reading, creating art, and engaging in virtual reality gaming experiences, all powered by renewable energy. Meanwhile, the fully charged Optimus bot cheerfully takes care of the post-dinner cleanup, leaving the kitchen spotless and preparing the coffee machine for the next day’s caffeine fix.

As we reflect on this futuristic scenario, it’s clear that Tesla’s groundbreaking innovations have not only made our lives more convenient but also more sustainable and connected. The future is bright, and we have Tesla to thank for helping us to live in harmony with our planet and one another.

Gail Alfar, author. Exclusive to Gail Alfar. All Rights Reserved. My goal as an author and podcaster is to support Tesla (the most American vehicle manufacturer) and Elon Musk in both making life better on Earth for humans and becoming a space-fairing civilization.

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